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Estimating Cubeless Game Winning Chances

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Friday, 29 January 2016, at 10:17 p.m.

In Response To: Estimating Cubeless Game Winning Chances (Chuck Bower)

White's EPC is ~22. Blue's (using Matussek) is 21.1. 22 on roll vs. 18 would have around 50% cubeless chances. White has a rolls position while Blue has a flat position with an average pip count per checker of 3.5. If this was a rolls v pip position, 22 on roll vs 22 would give the side on roll around 78% cubeless chances. So 22 on roll vs. 21 would be about 71%. That's for a R v P position so some small adjustment should be made since Blue is not in a pips position. Not sure in which direction so I'd go with 71% OTB.

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