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Post Late Game Hit Recube - Rollouts +

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 30 January 2016, at 12:41 a.m.

In Response To: Post Late Game Hit Recube (Stick)

Many redouble this position or something similar OtB. With 7 off and never picking up another checker assuming we reach the perfect spare distribution we'd be about a 60/40 favorite.

Neil Robbins asked about extending the prime forward so we didn't have so much to roll home so those rollouts immediately follow the original problem.

Most aces could lose the market as with most of them we're supposed to double hit to keep the opponent from anchoring. The question arose that if indeed we hit and the opponent is able to anchor on our 3pt what's the cube action then? Have we lost our market/do we even have a double!? I may run a stronger rollout tonight and post it tomorrow that may trap better off the anchor to see if it makes a difference.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 35
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 139
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---aBBBBBB-----A-----A-faA:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 69.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.90% (G:2.21% B:0.16%) 30.67% (G:2.36% B:0.13%)
Cubeless Equities +0.358 +0.723
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.642±0.011 (+0.632..+0.653)
Redouble/Take:+0.547 (-0.095)±0.016 (+0.530..+0.563)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.358)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 17.4%
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13692409
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 54 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.206.pre-release






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 36
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 127
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aBBBBBB------A-----A-faA:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 71.07% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.35% (G:1.91% B:0.13%) 28.93% (G:2.10% B:0.11%)
Cubeless Equities +0.393 +0.799
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.661±0.007 (+0.655..+0.668)
Redouble/Take:+0.632 (-0.029)±0.011 (+0.621..+0.644)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.339)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.3%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13692409
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 17 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.206.pre-release






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 37
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 115
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aBBBBBB-------A-----A-faA:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 73.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.23% (G:2.71% B:0.21%) 26.51% (G:2.70% B:0.18%)
Cubeless Equities +0.426 +0.882
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.689 (-0.037)±0.007 (+0.682..+0.696)
Redouble/Take:+0.726±0.010 (+0.716..+0.737)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.274)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52782083
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 06 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.206.pre-release






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 56
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 136
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---bBBBBBB-----A-----AAf--:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 80.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 80.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 19.96% (G:5.68% B:0.30%) 19.59% (G:5.69% B:0.27%)
Cubeless Equities +0.541 +1.097
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.950 (-0.036)±0.009 (+0.941..+0.959)
Redouble/Take:+0.986±0.010 (+0.976..+0.996)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.014)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13692409
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:99.6%
Duration: 32 minutes 54 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.206.pre-release

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