Many redouble this position or something similar OtB. With 7 off and never picking up another checker assuming we reach the perfect spare distribution we'd be about a 60/40 favorite.
Neil Robbins asked about extending the prime forward so we didn't have so much to roll home so those rollouts immediately follow the original problem.
Most aces could lose the market as with most of them we're supposed to double hit to keep the opponent from anchoring. The question arose that if indeed we hit and the opponent is able to anchor on our 3pt what's the cube action then? Have we lost our market/do we even have a double!? I may run a stronger rollout tonight and post it tomorrow that may trap better off the anchor to see if it makes a difference.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 35 | Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver | pip: 139 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=---aBBBBBB-----A-----A-faA:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
Blue on roll, cube action? |
Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
Player Winning Chances: | 69.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 69.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
Opponent Winning Chances: | 30.90% (G:2.21% B:0.16%) | 30.67% (G:2.36% B:0.13%) |
Cubeless Equities | +0.358 | +0.723 |
Cubeful Equities |
No redouble: | +0.642 | ±0.011 (+0.632..+0.653) |
Redouble/Take: | +0.547 (-0.095) | ±0.016 (+0.530..+0.563) |
Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.358) |
|
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take |
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 17.4% |
Rollout details |
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 13692409 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
|
Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
Duration: 3 minutes 54 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.206.pre-release
| | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 36 | Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver | pip: 127 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=--aBBBBBB------A-----A-faA:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
Blue on roll, cube action? |
Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
Player Winning Chances: | 70.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 71.07% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
Opponent Winning Chances: | 29.35% (G:1.91% B:0.13%) | 28.93% (G:2.10% B:0.11%) |
Cubeless Equities | +0.393 | +0.799 |
Cubeful Equities |
No redouble: | +0.661 | ±0.007 (+0.655..+0.668) |
Redouble/Take: | +0.632 (-0.029) | ±0.011 (+0.621..+0.644) |
Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.339) |
|
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take |
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.3% |
Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 13692409 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
|
Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
Duration: 7 minutes 17 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.206.pre-release
| | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 37 | Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver | pip: 115 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-aBBBBBB-------A-----A-faA:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
Blue on roll, cube action? |
Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
Player Winning Chances: | 72.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 73.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
Opponent Winning Chances: | 27.23% (G:2.71% B:0.21%) | 26.51% (G:2.70% B:0.18%) |
Cubeless Equities | +0.426 | +0.882 |
Cubeful Equities |
No redouble: | +0.689 (-0.037) | ±0.007 (+0.682..+0.696) |
Redouble/Take: | +0.726 | ±0.010 (+0.716..+0.737) |
Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.274) |
|
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52782083 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
|
Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
Duration: 8 minutes 06 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.206.pre-release
| | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 56 | Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver | pip: 136 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=---bBBBBBB-----A-----AAf--:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
Blue on roll, cube action? |
Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
Player Winning Chances: | 80.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 80.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
Opponent Winning Chances: | 19.96% (G:5.68% B:0.30%) | 19.59% (G:5.69% B:0.27%) |
Cubeless Equities | +0.541 | +1.097 |
Cubeful Equities |
No redouble: | +0.950 (-0.036) | ±0.009 (+0.941..+0.959) |
Redouble/Take: | +0.986 | ±0.010 (+0.976..+0.996) |
Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.014) |
|
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
Rollout details |
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 13692409 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
|
Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
Take Decision confidence: | 99.6% |
Duration: 32 minutes 54 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.206.pre-release