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OLM 20160201C The Prime Factors

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 2 February 2016, at 5:00 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20160201C The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)

I see 30 covering numbers (I don't include 66), so we hit directly 11/36 * 1/6 -- about 5% of the time. (Not all of those are wins.) We get a few flyshots and we may get a few more direct shots when they start the bearoff if we are still in the bar. Let's optimistically(?) call those another 5%. Then there are the straight races. If we weren't on the bar (or blocked), this race would give us ~15%.

At this score we need a bit over 25% cubeless wins. The optimistic (I think) estimate above says we don't actually have that much.

Pass

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