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PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)

Posted By: Rick Janowski
Date: Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 8:36 p.m.

In Response To: PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative) (Matt Cohn-Geier)

I generally agree with Matt's comment that there is no surprise that luck dominates skill in the short term. PR gives a reasonable and practical indicator of long term win rate but not for the short term. In the latter case science is hardly better than séance.

Using standard Elo rating theory as an alternative way of looking at this problem:

If we consider a PR difference of 6 (say between 4PR and 10PR for example). Based on empirical this would appear to be equivalent to a 200 Elo rating difference. Assuming these player play a seven point match, the superior player is expected to win about 65% of the time according to the Elo formula. If a best of 5 series is played (like in grand slam tennis) the 65% edge becomes a 76% edge.

For a 13 point match the corresponding probabilities are about 70% (single) and 83% (best of 5). For a 25 point match 76% (single) and 91% (best of 5). And for a 50 point match 84% (single) and 97% (best of 5).

Messages In This Thread

• PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
  __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:04 a.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:21 a.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:29 a.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 2:03 p.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 2:47 p.m.
          • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
            Colin Owen -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 3:01 p.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:37 p.m.
              • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 8:10 p.m.
                • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                  __1ERROR1__ -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 12:52 a.m.
                  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                    Schigolch -- Tuesday, 23 February 2016, at 11:27 p.m.
          • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
            Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 5:17 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:43 a.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 5:27 a.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 5:57 a.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 6:27 a.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        vidvis -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 7:43 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Jason Lee -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 1:35 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 2:43 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 2:12 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:13 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Rick Janowski -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 8:36 p.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        __1ERROR1__ -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 12:49 a.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 10:06 a.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 10:09 p.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 10:35 p.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 11:22 p.m.
          • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
            David Rockwell -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 11:58 p.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 12:28 a.m.
              • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 1:32 a.m.
                • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                  christian munk-christensen -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 7:27 a.m.
                  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 7:53 a.m.
                  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                    Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 9:22 a.m.
              • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 1:42 a.m.
              • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                Bob Koca -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 9:27 p.m.
                • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                  Stick -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 10:03 p.m.
                  • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                    Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 11:40 p.m.
                  • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                    Colin Owen -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 12:00 a.m.
                    • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                      Bob Koca -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 1:34 a.m.
                  • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                    Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 12:07 a.m.
                • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                  Rick Janowski -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 10:41 p.m.
                  • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                    Tom Keith -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 1:25 a.m.
                    • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                      Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 8:39 a.m.
                      • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                        Colin Owen -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 12:40 p.m.
                        • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                          Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 4:13 p.m.
                  • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                    Bob Koca -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 1:31 a.m.
                  • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                    Chris Yep -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 5:46 a.m.
                    • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                      Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 11:42 a.m.
                      • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                        Chris Yep -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 1:17 p.m.
                      • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                        Bob Koca -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 5:15 p.m.
                    • PR or Luck? (Time management) Graphical Representation
                      Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 5:01 p.m.
                    • PR or Luck? (Time management)/Other sports
                      Bob Koca -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 5:20 p.m.
                      • PR or Luck? (Time management)/Other sports
                        Colin Owen -- Sunday, 14 February 2016, at 4:42 p.m.
                        • PR or Luck? (Time management)/Other sports
                          Colin Owen -- Sunday, 14 February 2016, at 4:44 p.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              __1ERROR1__ -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 1:19 a.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              johnk -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 6:46 p.m.
              • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 6:55 p.m.
                • Thanks *NM*
                  johnk -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 8:51 p.m.
          • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
            Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 12:11 a.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        __1ERROR1__ -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 1:07 a.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 4:18 a.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 4:34 a.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 2:21 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:23 p.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 5:14 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Igor -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 5:30 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Chris Yep -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 6:00 a.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    vidvis -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 8:05 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 4:15 a.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 1:38 a.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 4:28 a.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Timothy Chow -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 12:21 a.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Albert Steg -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 5:56 p.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 12:44 a.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    sita -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 9:03 a.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    christian munk-christensen -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 12:46 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 2:49 p.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Timothy Chow -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 12:24 a.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          Rick Janowski -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 2:04 a.m.
          • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
            Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 12:41 a.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 1:51 a.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Florin Popa -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 12:08 p.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          Leonardo Jerkovic -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 12:24 p.m.
          • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 12:33 p.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              Colin Owen -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 3:20 p.m.
              • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                Florin Popa -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 3:53 p.m.
                • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                  Colin Owen -- Tuesday, 23 February 2016, at 12:54 a.m.
                  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                    Florin Popa -- Tuesday, 23 February 2016, at 1:08 a.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              Florin Popa -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 3:32 p.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              Rick Janowski -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 3:45 p.m.
              • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                Florin Popa -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 4:04 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Sean Garber -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 7:57 a.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Bob Koca -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 9:01 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Schigolch -- Thursday, 18 February 2016, at 11:24 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    niuniuch -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 12:58 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Sean Garber -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 10:29 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 10:43 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Florin Popa -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 3:42 p.m.