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PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)

Posted By: sita
Date: Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 9:03 a.m.

In Response To: PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative) (__1ERROR1__)

Many pointed already out that the result is not surprising. The interesting point is not that in the short run the luckier wins. The interesting quesion is: How long is the long run? You address this by saying "Quite long!"

I once was curious myself, and tried to find out. Therefore i simulated tournaments with a computer. As player population I chose an equal distribution of players between 3 PR and 15 PR. That surely does not reflect the real world perfectly, but maybe comes close enough.

First I found that the 7 PR player is about break even without rake.

The 5PR player in that population wins, of course. But she needs dozens of tournaments to come out ahead with probability >95%. I do not recall the exact figures, but adding some normal amount of rake lets the 5PR player still win in the long run - but the long run was longer than a typicall lifetime of play for winning with prob. >95%.

The top player makes some decent money, effectively doubling her entry fee even including normal rake. But due to the nature of the payout structure, she needed quite a large bankroll to not go broke in a lifetime with probability >95%. IIRC it was more than 20 buy ins.

Messages In This Thread

• PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
  __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:04 a.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:21 a.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:29 a.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 2:03 p.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 2:47 p.m.
          • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
            Colin Owen -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 3:01 p.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:37 p.m.
              • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 8:10 p.m.
                • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                  __1ERROR1__ -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 12:52 a.m.
                  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                    Schigolch -- Tuesday, 23 February 2016, at 11:27 p.m.
          • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
            Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 5:17 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:43 a.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 5:27 a.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 5:57 a.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 6:27 a.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        vidvis -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 7:43 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Jason Lee -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 1:35 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 2:43 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 2:12 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:13 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Rick Janowski -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 8:36 p.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        __1ERROR1__ -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 12:49 a.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 10:06 a.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 10:09 p.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 10:35 p.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 11:22 p.m.
          • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
            David Rockwell -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 11:58 p.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 12:28 a.m.
              • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 1:32 a.m.
                • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                  christian munk-christensen -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 7:27 a.m.
                  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 7:53 a.m.
                  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                    Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 9:22 a.m.
              • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 1:42 a.m.
              • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                Bob Koca -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 9:27 p.m.
                • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                  Stick -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 10:03 p.m.
                  • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                    Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 11:40 p.m.
                  • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                    Colin Owen -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 12:00 a.m.
                    • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                      Bob Koca -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 1:34 a.m.
                  • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                    Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 12:07 a.m.
                • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                  Rick Janowski -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 10:41 p.m.
                  • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                    Tom Keith -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 1:25 a.m.
                    • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                      Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 8:39 a.m.
                      • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                        Colin Owen -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 12:40 p.m.
                        • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                          Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 4:13 p.m.
                  • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                    Bob Koca -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 1:31 a.m.
                  • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                    Chris Yep -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 5:46 a.m.
                    • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                      Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 11:42 a.m.
                      • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                        Chris Yep -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 1:17 p.m.
                      • PR or Luck? (Time management)
                        Bob Koca -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 5:15 p.m.
                    • PR or Luck? (Time management) Graphical Representation
                      Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 5:01 p.m.
                    • PR or Luck? (Time management)/Other sports
                      Bob Koca -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 5:20 p.m.
                      • PR or Luck? (Time management)/Other sports
                        Colin Owen -- Sunday, 14 February 2016, at 4:42 p.m.
                        • PR or Luck? (Time management)/Other sports
                          Colin Owen -- Sunday, 14 February 2016, at 4:44 p.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              __1ERROR1__ -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 1:19 a.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              johnk -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 6:46 p.m.
              • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 6:55 p.m.
                • Thanks *NM*
                  johnk -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 8:51 p.m.
          • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
            Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 12:11 a.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        __1ERROR1__ -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 1:07 a.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 4:18 a.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 4:34 a.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 2:21 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 4:23 p.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 5:14 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Igor -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 5:30 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Chris Yep -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 6:00 a.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    vidvis -- Wednesday, 10 February 2016, at 8:05 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 4:15 a.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 1:38 a.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      __1ERROR1__ -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 4:28 a.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Timothy Chow -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 12:21 a.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Albert Steg -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 5:56 p.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 12:44 a.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    sita -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 9:03 a.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    christian munk-christensen -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 12:46 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 11 February 2016, at 2:49 p.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Timothy Chow -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 12:24 a.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          Rick Janowski -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 2:04 a.m.
          • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
            Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 12:41 a.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 1:51 a.m.
      • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
        Florin Popa -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 12:08 p.m.
        • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
          Leonardo Jerkovic -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 12:24 p.m.
          • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 12:33 p.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              Colin Owen -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 3:20 p.m.
              • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                Florin Popa -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 3:53 p.m.
                • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                  Colin Owen -- Tuesday, 23 February 2016, at 12:54 a.m.
                  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                    Florin Popa -- Tuesday, 23 February 2016, at 1:08 a.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              Florin Popa -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 3:32 p.m.
            • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
              Rick Janowski -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 3:45 p.m.
              • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
                Florin Popa -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 4:04 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Sean Garber -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 7:57 a.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Bob Koca -- Friday, 12 February 2016, at 9:01 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Schigolch -- Thursday, 18 February 2016, at 11:24 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    niuniuch -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 12:58 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Sean Garber -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 10:29 p.m.
    • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
      Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 10:43 p.m.
  • PR or Luck? Here is the real answer if you are looking for (Long but informative)
    Florin Popa -- Monday, 22 February 2016, at 3:42 p.m.