Position 1 shows the DMP rollout data. Position 2 shows the position after the "best" play 16/15 13/11 has been made. Position 3 shows the GG rollout data. Top two plays are so close that we cannot really be 100% sure which is best, regardless of how many times it is rolled out. XG does not play perfectly, and there is a chance that if it misplays the position, the play that wins the rollout may not actually be the best.
I admit I would not have found and made the best play over the board.
Position 1. DMP

              
 
              
 | | White is peever
score: 0 pip: 122 | 1 point match | pip: 184 score: 0
Blue is othello | |
XGID=----C-B-Ba--bBb-AbcbDbA-a-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10 |
Blue to play 21 |
1. | Rollout1 | 16/15 13/11 | eq: -0.456 |
| Player: Opponent: | 27.18% (G:3.76% B:0.32%) 72.82% (G:47.81% B:2.21%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.459...-0.454) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes |
|
2. | Rollout1 | 8/5 | eq: -0.463 (-0.007) |
| Player: Opponent: | 26.85% (G:3.64% B:0.31%) 73.15% (G:42.79% B:1.27%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.465...-0.461) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes |
|
3. | Rollout1 | 8/6 4/3 | eq: -0.465 (-0.008) |
| Player: Opponent: | 26.76% (G:3.88% B:0.37%) 73.24% (G:43.05% B:1.09%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.467...-0.463) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes |
|
4. | Rollout1 | 16/15 8/6 | eq: -0.467 (-0.010) |
| Player: Opponent: | 26.66% (G:3.85% B:0.35%) 73.33% (G:43.66% B:1.24%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.469...-0.465) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes |
|
5. | Rollout2 | 13/11 4/3 | eq: -0.481 (-0.025) |
| Player: Opponent: | 25.95% (G:3.32% B:0.46%) 74.05% (G:47.68% B:2.17%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.487...-0.475) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 20 seconds |
|
6. | Rollout2 | 8/7 8/6 | eq: -0.482 (-0.026) |
| Player: Opponent: | 25.89% (G:3.90% B:0.32%) 74.11% (G:44.01% B:1.10%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.487...-0.477) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 03 seconds |
|
7. | Rollout2 | 13/10 | eq: -0.484 (-0.027) |
| Player: Opponent: | 25.82% (G:3.38% B:0.44%) 74.18% (G:44.95% B:1.98%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.490...-0.477) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 19 seconds |
|
8. | Rollout2 | 16/15 4/2 | eq: -0.487 (-0.030) |
| Player: Opponent: | 25.67% (G:3.85% B:0.29%) 74.33% (G:45.68% B:1.36%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.492...-0.481) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 53 seconds |
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1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Position 2. After making the "best" play, as shown in Position 2 below, White will be forced to hit or leave a triple shot with these 10 numbers: 66 64 62 44 42 22 11. Also, with 52 43, White will have to leave a shot. White does not want to hit or be hit. If White hits, Blue may make a second anchor or hit the blot on White's 1pt. White just wants to come home quietly and capitalize on his 59-pip lead.

              
 
              
 | | White is peever
score: 0 pip: 122 | 1 point match | pip: 181 score: 0
Blue is othello | |
XGID=----C-B-Ba-AbAbA-bcbDbA-a-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:1:10 |
White on roll |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Position 3. Gammon Go

              
 
              
 | | White is peever
score: 1 pip: 122 | 2 point match Crawford | pip: 184 score: 0
Blue is othello | |
XGID=----C-B-Ba--bBb-AbcbDbA-a-:0:0:1:21:0:1:1:2:10 |
Blue to play 21 |
1. | Rollout1 | 16/15 13/11 | eq: -0.360 |
| Player: Opponent: | 26.90% (G:5.09% B:0.43%) 73.10% (G:48.55% B:2.26%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.363...-0.357) - [99.8%] Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes |
|
2. | Rollout1 | 8/6 4/3 | eq: -0.367 (-0.006) |
| Player: Opponent: | 26.57% (G:5.11% B:0.40%) 73.43% (G:44.07% B:1.26%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.369...-0.364) - [0.1%] Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes |
|
3. | Rollout1 | 16/15 8/6 | eq: -0.367 (-0.007) |
| Player: Opponent: | 26.48% (G:5.16% B:0.34%) 73.52% (G:44.70% B:1.23%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.370...-0.364) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes |
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4. | Rollout1 | 8/5 | eq: -0.367 (-0.007) |
| Player: Opponent: | 26.64% (G:4.99% B:0.41%) 73.36% (G:43.97% B:1.28%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.370...-0.364) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes |
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5. | Rollout2 | 8/7 8/6 | eq: -0.389 (-0.028) |
| Player: Opponent: | 25.80% (G:4.77% B:0.31%) 74.20% (G:44.34% B:1.16%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.395...-0.383) - [0.0%] Duration: 11 minutes 04 seconds |
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6. | Rollout3 | 13/11 4/3 | eq: -0.391 (-0.030) |
| Player: Opponent: | 25.74% (G:4.72% B:0.29%) 74.26% (G:48.14% B:2.08%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.397...-0.384) - [0.0%] Duration: 12 minutes 35 seconds |
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7. | Rollout3 | 13/10 | eq: -0.392 (-0.031) |
| Player: Opponent: | 25.78% (G:4.64% B:0.44%) 74.22% (G:47.01% B:1.80%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.398...-0.385) - [0.0%] Duration: 12 minutes 51 seconds |
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8. | Rollout2 | 16/15 4/2 | eq: -0.393 (-0.033) |
| Player: Opponent: | 25.49% (G:4.83% B:0.33%) 74.51% (G:46.97% B:1.25%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.400...-0.387) - [0.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 27 seconds |
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9. | Rollout2 | 16/13 | eq: -0.406 (-0.046) |
| Player: Opponent: | 25.09% (G:4.59% B:0.31%) 74.91% (G:43.82% B:0.68%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.412...-0.401) - [0.0%] Duration: 12 minutes 23 seconds |
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1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
2 2151 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
3 2152 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
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eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2