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DMP, GG Rollout Results Posted; Voluntary Quintuple Shot

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Saturday, 13 February 2016, at 9:03 a.m.

In Response To: DMP 21 (Paul Weaver)

Position 1 shows the DMP rollout data. Position 2 shows the position after the "best" play 16/15 13/11 has been made. Position 3 shows the GG rollout data. Top two plays are so close that we cannot really be 100% sure which is best, regardless of how many times it is rolled out. XG does not play perfectly, and there is a chance that if it misplays the position, the play that wins the rollout may not actually be the best.

I admit I would not have found and made the best play over the board.

Position 1. DMP





White is peever

score: 0
pip: 122
1 point match
pip: 184
score: 0

Blue is othello
XGID=----C-B-Ba--bBb-AbcbDbA-a-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 21

1.Rollout116/15 13/11eq: -0.456
Player:
Opponent:
27.18% (G:3.76% B:0.32%)
72.82% (G:47.81% B:2.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.459...-0.454) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
2.Rollout18/5eq: -0.463 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
26.85% (G:3.64% B:0.31%)
73.15% (G:42.79% B:1.27%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.465...-0.461) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
3.Rollout18/6 4/3eq: -0.465 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
26.76% (G:3.88% B:0.37%)
73.24% (G:43.05% B:1.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.467...-0.463) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
4.Rollout116/15 8/6eq: -0.467 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
26.66% (G:3.85% B:0.35%)
73.33% (G:43.66% B:1.24%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.469...-0.465) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
5.Rollout213/11 4/3eq: -0.481 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
25.95% (G:3.32% B:0.46%)
74.05% (G:47.68% B:2.17%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.487...-0.475) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 20 seconds
6.Rollout28/7 8/6eq: -0.482 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
25.89% (G:3.90% B:0.32%)
74.11% (G:44.01% B:1.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.487...-0.477) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 03 seconds
7.Rollout213/10eq: -0.484 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
25.82% (G:3.38% B:0.44%)
74.18% (G:44.95% B:1.98%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.490...-0.477) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 19 seconds
8.Rollout216/15 4/2eq: -0.487 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
25.67% (G:3.85% B:0.29%)
74.33% (G:45.68% B:1.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.492...-0.481) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 53 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 2. After making the "best" play, as shown in Position 2 below, White will be forced to hit or leave a triple shot with these 10 numbers: 66 64 62 44 42 22 11. Also, with 52 43, White will have to leave a shot. White does not want to hit or be hit. If White hits, Blue may make a second anchor or hit the blot on White's 1pt. White just wants to come home quietly and capitalize on his 59-pip lead.





White is peever

score: 0
pip: 122
1 point match
pip: 181
score: 0

Blue is othello
XGID=----C-B-Ba-AbAbA-bcbDbA-a-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:1:10
White on roll

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 3. Gammon Go





White is peever

score: 1
pip: 122
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 184
score: 0

Blue is othello
XGID=----C-B-Ba--bBb-AbcbDbA-a-:0:0:1:21:0:1:1:2:10
Blue to play 21

1.Rollout116/15 13/11eq: -0.360
Player:
Opponent:
26.90% (G:5.09% B:0.43%)
73.10% (G:48.55% B:2.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.363...-0.357) - [99.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
2.Rollout18/6 4/3eq: -0.367 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
26.57% (G:5.11% B:0.40%)
73.43% (G:44.07% B:1.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.369...-0.364) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
3.Rollout116/15 8/6eq: -0.367 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
26.48% (G:5.16% B:0.34%)
73.52% (G:44.70% B:1.23%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.370...-0.364) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes
4.Rollout18/5eq: -0.367 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
26.64% (G:4.99% B:0.41%)
73.36% (G:43.97% B:1.28%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.370...-0.364) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
5.Rollout28/7 8/6eq: -0.389 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
25.80% (G:4.77% B:0.31%)
74.20% (G:44.34% B:1.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.395...-0.383) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 04 seconds
6.Rollout313/11 4/3eq: -0.391 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
25.74% (G:4.72% B:0.29%)
74.26% (G:48.14% B:2.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.397...-0.384) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 35 seconds
7.Rollout313/10eq: -0.392 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
25.78% (G:4.64% B:0.44%)
74.22% (G:47.01% B:1.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.398...-0.385) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 51 seconds
8.Rollout216/15 4/2eq: -0.393 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
25.49% (G:4.83% B:0.33%)
74.51% (G:46.97% B:1.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.400...-0.387) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 27 seconds
9.Rollout216/13eq: -0.406 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
25.09% (G:4.59% B:0.31%)
74.91% (G:43.82% B:0.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.412...-0.401) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 23 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

2 2151 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

3 2152 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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