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Rollout
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Here's one of those positions I don't know how to categorize (Timothy Chow)
Date: Tuesday, 16 February 2016, at 12:46 a.m.
For lack of a better term, this is a holding game, but the reason I don't find the categorization straightforward is that it's not so common to own both the 21pt and the 17pt in a holding game. Moreover, White already has a straggler. The general strategy in a holding game is to hold the anchor and hope to hit a shot. If there are two points that could arguably be called "anchors" and if Blue has already hit a checker that might be contained, then the strategy isn't quite as simple.
Anyway, it wasn't clear to me OTB that it was time to break the 17pt, and it's still not clear to me why, given that I've decided to break the 17pt, I should prefer 9/8 to 6/5 since 6/5 duplicates White's 2's to hit. I guess maybe we don't care too much about getting hit, and 6/5 slightly misplaces that checker.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 128Unlimited Game pip: 132
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=-B-B-BCa-A-Ac--b-Bcd-Bb---:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10 Blue to play 61
1. Rollout1 17/11 9/8 eq: -0.092
Player:
Opponent:38.52% (G:7.35% B:0.11%)
61.48% (G:6.15% B:0.21%)Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.100...-0.085) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 31 seconds2. Rollout1 17/11 6/5 eq: -0.118 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:37.66% (G:6.56% B:0.09%)
62.34% (G:5.90% B:0.24%)Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.125...-0.110) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 24 seconds3. Rollout1 11/5 9/8 eq: -0.127 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:37.82% (G:5.29% B:0.07%)
62.18% (G:5.44% B:0.16%)Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.133...-0.120) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 00 second4. Rollout1 11/4 eq: -0.128 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:37.94% (G:5.47% B:0.09%)
62.06% (G:5.58% B:0.24%)Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.135...-0.122) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 55 seconds1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollereXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release
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