BGonline.org Forums

Maybe it's time for a change?

Posted By: Rick Janowski
Date: Friday, 19 February 2016, at 11:53 p.m.

In Response To: Maybe it's time for a change? (Florin Popa)

PR is a practical measure of how strong a player is because it correlates strongly to a player's long term win rate. PR doesn't really measure how well a player understands the game because players can have an intuitive feel for the game without understanding it.

I believe normalise win rate would be the ideal means of measuring performance if it were not for its very high variance and standard deviation. To obtain reliable win-rates, 10 to 15 years worth of results data may be required. Even when reliable, the win rate measure will be more representative of the strength of a player 5-7 years ago rather than current performance.

PR has very close correlation with long-term win rate generally, and has the advantage of very much smaller variance and standard deviation. Consequently, it is a far more reliable measure of player strength.

Elo rating, whether VR or raw, may be useful for a population where the players all interact frequently. At an international level, this interaction requirement will generally not be fulfilled. Consequently, players who play in weaker local populations will have inflated Elo ratings in comparison to the overall "world" population.

Messages In This Thread

• The joke Backgammon Giants list
  Sevdalin Tsvetanov -- Wednesday, 17 February 2016, at 1:34 p.m.
  • The joke Backgammon Giants list
    Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 17 February 2016, at 2:05 p.m.
    • The joke Backgammon Giants list
      Sevdalin Tsvetanov -- Wednesday, 17 February 2016, at 2:23 p.m.
      • The joke Backgammon Giants list
        Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 17 February 2016, at 2:45 p.m.
        • The joke Backgammon Giants list
          Sevdalin Tsvetanov -- Wednesday, 17 February 2016, at 4:26 p.m.
          • The joke Backgammon Giants list
            Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 17 February 2016, at 5:04 p.m.
            • The joke Backgammon Giants list
              Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 17 February 2016, at 6:24 p.m.
              • The joke Backgammon Giants list
                Sevdalin Tsvetanov -- Wednesday, 17 February 2016, at 7:39 p.m.
                • The joke Backgammon Giants list
                  Maya Peycheva -- Saturday, 20 February 2016, at 9:22 p.m.
                  • The joke Backgammon Giants list
                    Bill Riles -- Sunday, 21 February 2016, at 2:43 a.m.
              • The joke Backgammon Giants list
                Schigolch -- Thursday, 18 February 2016, at 10:39 p.m.
        • The joke Backgammon Giants list
          Bob Koca -- Thursday, 18 February 2016, at 7:04 a.m.
          • The joke Backgammon Giants list
            Casper Van der Tak -- Thursday, 18 February 2016, at 8:15 a.m.
            • The joke Backgammon Giants list
              Sevdalin Tsvetanov -- Thursday, 18 February 2016, at 8:27 a.m.
              • The joke Backgammon Giants list
                Casper Van der Tak -- Thursday, 18 February 2016, at 9:32 a.m.
                • The joke Backgammon Giants list
                  Keene -- Thursday, 18 February 2016, at 5:25 p.m.
                  • The joke Backgammon Giants list
                    Rick Janowski -- Thursday, 18 February 2016, at 7:52 p.m.
  • The joke Backgammon Giants list
    Steve Mellen -- Wednesday, 17 February 2016, at 4:03 p.m.
    • The joke Backgammon Giants list
      Sevdalin Tsvetanov -- Wednesday, 17 February 2016, at 4:28 p.m.
  • The joke Backgammon Giants list
    Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 17 February 2016, at 5:55 p.m.
  • Maybe it's time for a change?
    Phil Simborg -- Thursday, 18 February 2016, at 1:40 a.m.
    • Maybe it's time for a change?
      Sevdalin Tsvetanov -- Thursday, 18 February 2016, at 8:20 a.m.
    • Maybe it's time for a change?
      Casper Van der Tak -- Thursday, 18 February 2016, at 8:26 a.m.
    • Maybe it's time for a change?
      Florin Popa -- Thursday, 18 February 2016, at 11:52 a.m.
    • Maybe it's time for a change?
      Jakob Garal -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 1:37 p.m.
      • Maybe it's time for a change?
        Florin Popa -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 5:33 p.m.
        • Maybe it's time for a change?
          Rick Janowski -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 6:24 p.m.
          • Maybe it's time for a change?
            Tenland -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 7:20 p.m.
            • Maybe it's time for a change?
              Florin Popa -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 7:36 p.m.
              • Maybe it's time for a change?
                Tenland -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 7:44 p.m.
                • Maybe it's time for a change?
                  Florin Popa -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 8:55 p.m.
                  • Maybe it's time for a change?
                    Rick Janowski -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 9:42 p.m.
                    • Maybe it's time for a change?
                      Florin Popa -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 10:22 p.m.
                    • Maybe it's time for a change?
                      Florin Popa -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 10:51 p.m.
                      • Maybe it's time for a change?
                        Tenland -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 11:23 p.m.
                        • Maybe it's time for a change?
                          Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 20 February 2016, at 7:51 a.m.
                      • Maybe it's time for a change?
                        Rick Janowski -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 11:53 p.m.
                        • Maybe it's time for a change?
                          Colin Owen -- Saturday, 20 February 2016, at 1:10 a.m.
                          • Maybe it's time for a change?
                            Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 20 February 2016, at 4:10 a.m.
                          • Maybe it's time for a change?
                            Bob Koca -- Saturday, 20 February 2016, at 12:53 p.m.
                            • Maybe it's time for a change?
                              Colin Owen -- Saturday, 20 February 2016, at 2:33 p.m.
                        • Maybe it's time for a change?
                          Florin Popa -- Saturday, 20 February 2016, at 8:24 a.m.
                          • Maybe it's time for a change?
                            Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 20 February 2016, at 9:28 a.m.
                            • Maybe it's time for a change?
                              Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 20 February 2016, at 9:57 a.m.
                              • Maybe it's time for a change?
                                Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 20 February 2016, at 10:47 a.m.
                                • Maybe it's time for a change?
                                  Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 20 February 2016, at 11:02 a.m.
                                  • Maybe it's time for a change?
                                    Bob Koca -- Saturday, 20 February 2016, at 12:43 p.m.
                                    • Maybe it's time for a change?
                                      Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 20 February 2016, at 1:27 p.m.
                                  • Maybe it's time for a change?
                                    Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 20 February 2016, at 5:51 p.m.
                                    • Maybe it's time for a change?
                                      Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 20 February 2016, at 6:12 p.m.
                                      • Maybe it's time for a change?
                                        Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 20 February 2016, at 6:19 p.m.
                                        • Maybe it's time for a change?
                                          Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 20 February 2016, at 6:38 p.m.
                            • Maybe it's time for a change?
                              Florin Popa -- Saturday, 20 February 2016, at 7:03 p.m.
                              • Maybe it's time for a change?
                                Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 20 February 2016, at 7:44 p.m.
                                • Maybe it's time for a change?
                                  Florin Popa -- Sunday, 21 February 2016, at 12:00 a.m.
                                  • Maybe it's time for a change?
                                    Rick Janowski -- Sunday, 21 February 2016, at 8:24 a.m.
                                    • Maybe it's time for a change?
                                      Florin Popa -- Sunday, 21 February 2016, at 1:49 p.m.
                                      • Maybe it's time for a change?
                                        Rick Janowski -- Sunday, 21 February 2016, at 5:59 p.m.
              • Maybe it's time for a change?
                Bob Koca -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 8:56 p.m.
                • Maybe it's time for a change?
                  Rick Janowski -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 9:18 p.m.
                  • Maybe it's time for a change?
                    Bob Koca -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 9:29 p.m.
        • Maybe it's time for a change?
          Bob Koca -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 8:15 p.m.
  • The joke Backgammon Giants list
    christian munk-christensen -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 8:36 a.m.
    • The joke Backgammon Giants list
      Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 9:07 a.m.
    • The joke Backgammon Giants list
      Bill Riles -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 2:17 p.m.
      • The joke Backgammon Giants list
        Christian Munk-Christensen -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 6:06 p.m.
        • The joke Backgammon Giants list
          Rick Janowski -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 6:29 p.m.
          • The joke Backgammon Giants list
            Christian Munk-Christensen -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 10:10 p.m.
        • The joke Backgammon Giants list
          Bill Riles -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 6:34 p.m.