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BGonline.org Forums
Is there a future for the Giants List?
Posted By: Rick Janowski In Response To: Is there a future for the Giants List? (Barry Silliman)
Date: Sunday, 21 February 2016, at 3:12 p.m.
"Being able to play with a great PR to me is like an American football quarterback being able to throw a pass with a tight spiral. It's better to have this ability than to not have it, but you still have to line up and play and outscore your opponent if you want to bring home the trophy, don't you!"
Backgammon strength or performance has no perfect parameter to measure it. Win rate and Elo have inherent problems of variance, making them effectively unreliable. Grand prix point systems also have high variation. Moreover they only look at "receipts" and not costs, profit or rate of return on investment.
PR systems is closely correlated with long term win rate but useful live data is difficult to achieve.
Hybrid systems using arbitrary parameters do not provide any magic elixir. Most likely they are worse than pure Elo systems, because unscientific adjustment of probability functions, etc will tend to make the system far less reliable.
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