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PvP take action - OTB, RO, Variant

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Monday, 22 February 2016, at 10:13 p.m.

In Response To: PvP take action (Karol Szczerek)

Thanks for all the input. Below is the RO result. A sound pass.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 125
13 point match
pip: 93
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bCCCC-B---a----bbbbbbA--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:13:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77,88% (G:10,32% B:0,36%) 78,40% (G:10,09% B:0,34%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22,12% (G:4,99% B:0,18%) 21,60% (G:4,97% B:0,17%)
Cubeless Equities +0,614 +1,262
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,817 (-0,183)±0,009 (+0,807..+0,826)
Double/Take:+1,129 (+0,129)±0,012 (+1,117..+1,140)
Double/Pass:+1,000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 16 minutes 00 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

My OTB eval went like this:

a/ white has ~2 rolls to get a 5 without crunch (assume we don't crunch in 2 rolls either), that's bit below 5/9 chance, say 4.5/9 - give him 90% chance for these, so we loose 4.1/9 games here

b/ if he doesn't, after 2 rolls the primes will be naked, and the position should be roughly 60/40 to the opp (I'd say 50/50, but he rolls first), so .6 * 4.5/9 (the other cases left after a) = 2.7/9 losses

a + b gives 6.8/9 losses, so 2.2/9 wins, which is roughly 24.5% - before gammons should be a thin take.

Gammons are not high, but favors the opp by few %, so I guessed they had to push my thin take into a borderline zone. I took, because I'm a taker.

What would You point as a biggest flaw in my above eval?

I tend to think the assumption of my 2nd roll being usually still safe is too much. Yes, 6s are killed, but when I roll two 5s or two 4s or two numbers without 1&2s, I crack. Opp's 2nd roll can be too high for him too, but in my eyes that's sort of compensated by the fact that he can attack my blot instead. So I should reduce my win% by roughly 1/10 (that's post-RO conclusion).

Variant A

In the variant below, bottom player has been adjusted 4/8.

If I apply the above thinking here, this modification corrects the flaw of my 2nd roll cracking too much, so I should stay with the original ~24,5% eval. With gammons counting, just like I assumed above, I'm pushed into the borderline zone. Accidentally right on the money.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 125
13 point match
pip: 97
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bCBCC-C---a----bbbbbbA--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:13:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75,44% (G:10,22% B:0,34%) 76,38% (G:9,70% B:0,32%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24,56% (G:5,80% B:0,23%) 23,62% (G:5,55% B:0,23%)
Cubeless Equities +0,555 +1,158
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,741 (-0,259)±0,005 (+0,735..+0,746)
Double/Take:+1,004 (+0,004)±0,007 (+0,997..+1,010)
Double/Pass:+1,000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:86,9%
Duration: 53 minutes 17 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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