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Late ace - RO

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Wednesday, 24 February 2016, at 9:11 p.m.

In Response To: Late ace (Karol Szczerek)

The correct ace is 3/2. I'm aware of the concept of shifting the blot to i.e. move it from the edge of the prime, but I can't find the reason here.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 105 13 point match pip: 136 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---ABcCB-CB-------ac-bcBc-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:13:10
Blue to play 51

1.	Rollout1	23/18* 3/2	eq: +0,425
	Player: Opponent: 62,45% (G:14,72% B:0,59%) 37,55% (G:13,09% B:0,20%) Conf.: ± 0,008 (+0,418...+0,433) - [100,0%] Duration: 42 minutes 01 second
2.	Rollout1	23/18* 4/3	eq: +0,380 (-0,045)
	Player: Opponent: 61,41% (G:13,60% B:0,56%) 38,59% (G:13,35% B:0,22%) Conf.: ± 0,007 (+0,373...+0,388) - [0,0%] Duration: 41 minutes 48 seconds
3.	Rollout1	23/18* 18/17	eq: +0,379 (-0,046)
	Player: Opponent: 61,75% (G:13,74% B:0,56%) 38,25% (G:14,33% B:0,24%) Conf.: ± 0,008 (+0,371...+0,388) - [0,0%] Duration: 39 minutes 01 second
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

I like the blot right where it's at tbh, so I just played 18/17. I got 2 covers, and opp's entering 3s are good anyway, diversifying his escaping numbers. If he enters with a 2, he will have duplicated 3&6s to move both the blot and the spare from his anchor. So I don't really want to move my blot to the 2pt. to make his 2s good.

I've rejected 4/3 because I'm switching to worse point, enlarging the hole, and I don't consider having more covers, since I don't like to break the 10pt. to cover with 6s. Even though if he enters low I will be forced to do it, but I see it as not really a positive outcome, so I just don't count it as an additional "good" number/cover.

18/17 was logical to me.

I'd be grateful if You could crush my logic with a hammer and explain what's going on here. Are the 2 less hits making such difference? To me, those hits are lightyears from being decisive, and my positional considerations should be worth it to leave the blot at 3pt.

Messages In This Thread

• Late ace
  Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 23 February 2016, at 9:57 p.m.
  • Late ace
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 24 February 2016, at 1:34 a.m.
    • Late ace
      Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 24 February 2016, at 8:38 a.m.
      • Late ace
        Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 24 February 2016, at 8:39 a.m.
  • Late ace
    johnk -- Wednesday, 24 February 2016, at 3:30 p.m.
  • Late ace - RO
    Karol Szczerek -- Wednesday, 24 February 2016, at 9:11 p.m.
    • Late ace - RO
      Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 24 February 2016, at 10:36 p.m.
    • Late ace - RO
      Stick -- Wednesday, 24 February 2016, at 10:55 p.m.
    • Late ace - RO
      Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 25 February 2016, at 12:16 p.m.
    • Late ace - RO dice distr
      Karol Szczerek -- Friday, 26 February 2016, at 9:43 p.m.
      • dice distribution issue?
        johnk -- Thursday, 3 March 2016, at 7:34 p.m.
        • dice distribution issue?
          Bob Koca -- Friday, 4 March 2016, at 1:49 a.m.
        • dice distribution issue?
          Maik Stiebler -- Saturday, 5 March 2016, at 9:02 a.m.