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Quizz: Find the error in logic

Posted By: scotty
Date: Thursday, 25 February 2016, at 4:10 p.m.

In Response To: Definition of 'Gammonish'? (Casper Van der Tak)

if my above formula for 3a MWC is correct, then it would imply that 3a begins the game with 0 gammon chances.

We know from the MET that 3a1aPC has about 25% MWC. If we assume that each player has a 50% chance to win the game, then assigning .5% MWC to each of 3a 50 wins accounts for all of 3a 25% MWC. This implies that 3a has no gammon chances. That is obviously not the case.

Either this argument, or my previous argument is wrong. Quizz: Find the error in logic!!!!

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