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Quizz: Find the error in logic

Posted By: scotty
Date: Thursday, 25 February 2016, at 10:22 p.m.

In Response To: Quizz: Find the error in logic (Bob Koca)

It will be a challenge for me to articulate my ideas clearly and concisely, but i will try.

3a has approximately 25% MWC at the beginning of the game, according to most METs. IF we assume that each player has approximately 50% chance of winning the game, then 50 wins multiplied by .5 (or .49) is close to the 25% MWC attributed to 3a by the METs. If we add an additional 1% MWC for each gammon, and assume a modest gammon rate of 26% (13 for 1a, 13 for 3a), then the formula in my original post would suggest that 3a has MWC of

(13 gammons x 1% ) + ( 37 single wins x .5%) = 31.5% MWC.

If 3a gets 13 gammons we could arrive at 25% MWC if there are 24 single wins. Does it seem reasonable to think that 3a has a total of 37 wins at this score? If so, I am quite surprised. Perhaps that is the error in my logic.

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