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Rollout

Posted By: Ray Kershaw
Date: Saturday, 27 February 2016, at 6:48 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Timothy Chow)

You conclude from your first model that the luckier player always wins.

How do you account for the frequently observed backgammon game where the luckier player loses because, being the less skillful (or skilful in non-American English), he does not take advantage of his luck and therefore loses?

To take an extreme example, both players have played perfectly but B has had more luck. It's the last roll: B has one checker on his ace point and A's two last checkers are on his 6pt and 5pt. A on roll has 6/36 chance to win - and he rolls 65! Really lucky and enough luck to more than offset B's earlier luck but alas he plays 6/1, 5/Off and loses.

I don't understand how XG measures luck but I notice that almost always the winner is deemed to have been more lucky, whatever the difference in PRs. This seems to me to be implausible.

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