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The point of my post

Posted By: Mochy
Date: Wednesday, 2 March 2016, at 6:12 a.m.

In Response To: The point of my post (Dmitriy Obukhov)

Similar to what Dimitriy said.

I started with 55 and 66 rolled in the first shake. 2 * 0.7 = 1.4
55 and 66 in the next shake can be useful only when I take 2 off in the first shake. That happens only 14/36, so 14 * 1/18 = 7/9 = 0.77.. 1.4+0.78=2.18 but lets rounded down to 2 as he might off within 2 rolls too.(and it is convenient to remember 2 rather than 2.18)

So I already sensed that I must have more than 5.5%, which is a theoretical take point.

Then I guestimated 15% that he might not off within 3 rolls. (note his 32 is a horrible roll) Then I also estimated that I could bearing off 3rolls 20% of the time. 15% * 20% = 3%. 5.5% + 3% = 8.5%

The latter was a combined result of estimation and some knowledge, but even if I am far off in the estimation, I will be arrived between 7.5% - 9.5%.

Messages In This Thread

• Bear off cube action
  Mochy -- Monday, 29 February 2016, at 7:12 a.m.
  • Bear off cube action
    Stick -- Monday, 29 February 2016, at 1:43 p.m.
    • Bear off cube action
      Stick -- Monday, 29 February 2016, at 9:46 p.m.
    • Bear off cube action
      Mochy -- Tuesday, 1 March 2016, at 6:32 a.m.
      • Bear off cube action
        Stick -- Tuesday, 1 March 2016, at 10:31 p.m.
  • Bear off cube action
    garyo -- Monday, 29 February 2016, at 6:51 p.m.
  • Bear off cube action
    Keene -- Monday, 29 February 2016, at 7:28 p.m.
  • Bear off cube action
    ah_clem -- Monday, 29 February 2016, at 8:08 p.m.
  • Bear off cube action
    Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 29 February 2016, at 10:48 p.m.
  • The point of my post
    Mochy -- Tuesday, 1 March 2016, at 6:54 a.m.
    • The point of my post
      christian munk-christensen -- Tuesday, 1 March 2016, at 7:20 a.m.
      • The point of my post
        Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 1 March 2016, at 7:22 a.m.
        • The point of my post
          Dmitriy Obukhov -- Tuesday, 1 March 2016, at 4:45 p.m.
          • The point of my post
            Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 1 March 2016, at 5:07 p.m.
          • The point of my post
            Mochy -- Wednesday, 2 March 2016, at 6:12 a.m.
            • The point of my post
              Mochy -- Wednesday, 2 March 2016, at 6:15 a.m.
    • The point of my post
      Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 1 March 2016, at 12:56 p.m.
      • The point of my post
        Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 1 March 2016, at 11:33 p.m.
        • The point of my post
          Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 2 March 2016, at 9:20 a.m.
          • The point of my post
            Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 2 March 2016, at 3:19 p.m.
            • The point of my post
              Karol Szczerek -- Thursday, 3 March 2016, at 7:17 a.m.
              • The point of my post
                Karol Szczerek -- Thursday, 3 March 2016, at 7:44 a.m.