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Prime time tactics 3 - RO & Variants

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Tuesday, 29 March 2016, at 8:57 p.m.

In Response To: Prime time tactics 3 (Karol Szczerek)

OTB I played 23/16, having not even seen the best play.

So the choice between running and making the bar I got right. Our leaky prime is a weak one, so trying to prime at the cost of not moving forward with escaping the back checkers is not worth it.

Who cares, when there is a play that's lightyears from these two. Once you see it, it looks obvious. It does more great things than any of the above:
- moving a checker to the edge of opp's prime, which is a big one for the escaping plan;
- anchoring up, negating opp's blitzing potential;
- slotting a key point in our prime

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 129 13 point match pip: 139 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-B-CC-B-a--Cb--cbbbbAA--:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:13:10
Blue to play 61

1.	Rollout1	23/22 13/7	eq: -0,500
	Player: Opponent: 35,53% (G:7,29% B:0,18%) 64,47% (G:12,15% B:0,49%) Conf.: ± 0,009 (-0,509...-0,492) - [100,0%] Duration: 8 minutes 31 seconds
2.	Rollout1	23/16	eq: -0,888 (-0,387)
	Player: Opponent: 32,57% (G:8,73% B:0,46%) 67,43% (G:28,48% B:0,91%) Conf.: ± 0,017 (-0,904...-0,871) - [0,0%] Duration: 9 minutes 30 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/7 8/7	eq: -0,918 (-0,417)
	Player: Opponent: 31,05% (G:9,16% B:0,50%) 68,95% (G:25,91% B:1,33%) Conf.: ± 0,018 (-0,936...-0,900) - [0,0%] Duration: 9 minutes 05 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Variant A

Compared to the original position, player on roll is adjusted 6/4 5/4.

Closing that gap is a huge difference for our priming prospects. Making the bar gives a solid 5-prime, with opp's checker not at the edge. With such strong structure, opp's attack is muffled, too.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 129 13 point match pip: 136 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-BBBB-B-a--Cb--cbbbbAA--:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:13:10
Blue to play 61

1.	Rollout1	13/7 8/7	eq: -0,119
	Player: Opponent: 47,44% (G:14,24% B:0,80%) 52,56% (G:17,50% B:0,94%) Conf.: ± 0,011 (-0,131...-0,108) - [100,0%] Duration: 29 minutes 41 seconds
2.	Rollout1	23/22 13/7	eq: -0,143 (-0,024)
	Player: Opponent: 45,09% (G:10,00% B:0,37%) 54,91% (G:10,24% B:0,36%) Conf.: ± 0,008 (-0,151...-0,135) - [0,0%] Duration: 25 minutes 26 seconds
3.	Rollout2	23/16	eq: -0,339 (-0,219)
	Player: Opponent: 43,05% (G:10,86% B:0,77%) 56,95% (G:20,17% B:0,56%) Conf.: ± 0,022 (-0,361...-0,317) - [0,0%] Duration: 3 minutes 15 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Variant B

Compared to the original position,top player is adjusted 15/23.

In this variant, there is no good alternative to running, plus our race chances are better than in the previous variants. If opp's checkers weren't split, but stacked at our ace point instead, the bar slotting play would come out far ahead again.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 137 13 point match pip: 139 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aaB-CC-B----Cb--cbbbbAA--:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:13:10
Blue to play 61

1.	Rollout1	23/16	eq: -0,371
	Player: Opponent: 41,68% (G:14,62% B:1,05%) 58,32% (G:25,25% B:1,12%) Conf.: ± 0,015 (-0,385...-0,356) - [100,0%] Duration: 13 minutes 35 seconds
2.	Rollout1	23/22 8/2*	eq: -0,439 (-0,068)
	Player: Opponent: 38,12% (G:12,84% B:0,30%) 61,88% (G:17,15% B:0,90%) Conf.: ± 0,014 (-0,454...-0,425) - [0,0%] Duration: 15 minutes 26 seconds
3.	Rollout1	8/2* 2/1*	eq: -0,474 (-0,103)
	Player: Opponent: 36,91% (G:16,06% B:0,35%) 63,09% (G:21,45% B:1,51%) Conf.: ± 0,015 (-0,489...-0,459) - [0,0%] Duration: 14 minutes 29 seconds
4.	Rollout2	23/22 13/7	eq: -0,508 (-0,137)
	Player: Opponent: 36,63% (G:10,77% B:0,36%) 63,37% (G:16,08% B:0,65%) Conf.: ± 0,027 (-0,535...-0,481) - [0,0%] Duration: 2 minutes 11 seconds
5.	Rollout2	13/7 8/7	eq: -0,969 (-0,598)
	Player: Opponent: 31,04% (G:9,46% B:0,57%) 68,96% (G:29,06% B:1,59%) Conf.: ± 0,034 (-1,003...-0,935) - [0,0%] Duration: 2 minutes 12 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Prime time tactics 3
  Karol Szczerek -- Sunday, 27 March 2016, at 9:23 p.m.
  • Prime time tactics 3
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 28 March 2016, at 1:11 a.m.
  • Prime time tactics 3
    Jason Lee -- Monday, 28 March 2016, at 1:14 a.m.
    • Prime time tactics 3
      Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 28 March 2016, at 9:11 a.m.
    • Prime time tactics 3
      Wolfgang -- Tuesday, 29 March 2016, at 12:27 a.m.
    • Prime time tactics 3
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 29 March 2016, at 1:22 a.m.
  • Prime time tactics 3 - RO & Variants
    Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 29 March 2016, at 8:57 p.m.