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| XGID=aAB-C-B-B-BA---a-aB-ccbbb-:0:0:1:41:6:10:1:11:10 | |||||
| Blue to play 41 | |||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Obviously, we are hitting with the 1. After that, there are two ways we might play the 4.
My first instinct was to slot our bar point, by playing 11/7. That would keep our blot count down, while bringing another checker closer.
Then I noticed 10/6.
That fancy play would leave us with five blots scattered around the board. If any one of them were hit, we would need to enter, and strike back immediately. Otherwise, we might easily see several other blots get hit. Of course, that could also happen if we play 11/7, a play that "only" leaves us with four blots.
The only extra hitting number the Dillies get when we break the 10pt is 55. So, we leave 12 shots (any 1, plus 33) when we play 11/7, and 13 shots, with 10/6. Unfortunately, the swing on 55 is large. Perhaps that should be the deciding factor here. Big advantage to 11/7.
Cover-numbers for Ace Point – Advantage to 11/7
- 33 covers after 11/7: Any 3, 6, 7, 9, or 16. That's any 3 or 6, plus 11, 21, 22, 42, 51, 52, 54, and 44. The only misses are 41 and 55.
- 30 covers after 10/6: Any 3, 5, 7, 9, 10, or 16. (Any 3 or 5, plus 11, 21, 41, 61, 64, and 44.) The only misses are 22, 42, 62, and 66.
Other Point-makers after 11/7 – All non-covers make a point.
- 1 additional roll makes 5pt: 55. I am not counting 32, 33, 52, and 53, because they were counted as cover-numbers for the ace point.
- 2 additional rolls make 3pt: 41. I am not counting 51 and 55. 51 was counted above, as a cover-number for the ace point. 55 was also counted above, as a point-maker for the 5pt.
Other Point-makers after 10/6 – Cannot make a point with 22, 42, 62, or 66.
- 0 additional roll makes 5pt: I am not counting 11, 31, 33, 51, 61, 35, 36, and 65, because those rolls are cover-numbers for the ace point. Even though it was not counted, note that 33 makes both the ace point and 5pt. Depending on circumstance, we might use some of the other rolls to make our 5pt, as well.
- 0 additional rolls make 3pt: I am not counting 11, 31, 51, and 55, because those rolls were counted as cover-numbers for the ace point. Even though it was not counted, note that 55 makes both the ace point and 3pt.
This is another significant advantage for 11/7. A checker on the 7pt gives us a constructive way to play both direct and combination 6s.
Score is a factor. Losing a gammon does not carry a price.
I do not see blot count as a factor. Getting hit is bad for us no matter how we play. 11/7 may be marginally safer, but not by much. If we are hit, and then dance, we will be in big trouble no matter how many blots we have.
Note, however, when we are on the bar, and the Dillies are on our 1pt, we would prefer not to have a blot on our 7pt. That would give the Dillies a direct 6 they could hit with. In addition, we get more return shots when our spare is on the 6pt. From there, we could enter and hit with 65 and 66. When our spare is instead on the 7pt, we could hit with 66, but not with 65.
11/7 is probably better when the Dillies dance on the next roll. All 36 of our rolls would then play constructively, including thirty-three that cover the ace point. 10/6 gives us only 30 cover, but if we can cover, it offers better diversification for the follow up.
When the Dillies enter one checker without hitting, 11/7 is probably better, but I have not checked every roll. Cleanup will be easier for us if we have fewer blots.
On balance, it seems that 11/7 is best. I started out relatively unsure about this. Now that I have counted shots, blots, and covers, I am pretty confident that 11/7 is slightly better than 10/6. The biggest factors are the swing on 55, and the fact that a blot on the 7pt gives us a good way to play our 6s.
18/17*, 11/7
Mike