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BGonline.org Forums
Counting shots
Posted By: HOMINID In Response To: Counting shots (niuniuch)
Date: Thursday, 28 April 2016, at 10:10 a.m.
As the gentleman said if one avoids the hit white will have 23 rolls that hit in other words 13 that don't which is 36%. At this moment in time in this game position it is obvious that 36% is blues game winning chance. This knowledge can obviously be of great importance when it comes to cubing etc thus demonstrating the power obtained from the ability to calculate roll odds.
Should blue hit white will have a 36% chance of hitting on re-entry and an overall 75% chance of entering. It would appear blue is sacrificing a 64% against a 36% but the important fact to note here is that by recycling white they are once again in front of the enemy. White has better timing on account of the spares in his home board and could control both outer boards and may get to put 2 chequers on the bar which would be handy bearing in mind the pip count. In other words by hitting we are giving white two bites at the cherry. Even should white dance the agony will still continue for blue, pay now no hit.
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