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Another easy win for me

Posted By: Sean Garber
Date: Wednesday, 11 May 2016, at 2:17 p.m.

In Response To: Another easy win for me (Bob Koca)

"I am not making sense of these numbers. You wrote "If the backgamer in game 1 lost a gammon, he would win 24% gammons and 7% bgs in game 2". From that I get that the backgamers match win chance is 1/2 (24%) + 7% = 19% making his opponent have 81%. But then later you write "If the nonbackgamer wins a gammon in game 1, his match equity is 84.5%"

Another simple math error by me. I'm glad I've got you to check my work, Bob.

"I see a similar discrepancy with MWC if nonbackgamer wins a single game in game 1. Am I misunderstanding something?"

That nonbackgamer in game 1 will be playing the backgame in game 2. He will win that game 44% and lose a gammon 23%. in the other 33%, there will be a 3rd game. 44% + (33%/2)= 60.5% . I think I got that one right. Am I missing something?

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