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BGonline.org Forums
OLM 20160517A The Prime Factors
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: OLM 20160517A The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)
Date: Tuesday, 17 May 2016, at 3:06 p.m.
We've been on the border of having a cube turn for several rolls now, but Dillies have rolled pretty well (not jokers, but let's just say rolls they've needed) -- made the blocking 8-point, stepped out of our board with 51, and now stepped up to the edge with 31. We still have the distribution (good spare location) advantage but the timing lead has been slipping away. Note the near even pipcount but they can keep their anchor and still run one; we can't.
20 of their rolls next turn (any 5 or 6) gets them into the outfield -- an outfield we used to control. So what does all this mean? We're not doubling but what is our current GP?
We could make the safe and pretty stacking 10/5, 8/5 but if they roll a 5 or 6 they run a back checker out and take control of the entire outfield. They even get some chances to run one out and cover their homeboard blot.
The other option (actually two candidates) are to get a back checker moving now while it's kind of safe (they have a lot of things to do with their roll and hitting us may not be at the top of that list). So I begin 23/18. We then have the choice between continuing 18/15 or safetying 8/5.
Continuing gives us better outfield control but their 11 hits on our 8-point are automatic (and strong), even if they can't cover the acepoint.
Safetying doesn't give us as good of outfield presence and gives them aces to hit but at least they aren't (in most cases) hitting and escaping at the same time. I think that (tweener play?) is the route to take.
23/18, 8/5
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