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Estimate white's chance... Enough to Take?

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Wednesday, 18 May 2016, at 9:42 p.m.

In Response To: Estimate white's chance... Enough to Take? (Rico)

my rough eval OTB:

a/ when he rolls <7 pips (13 rolls):
- we got avg of 6 return hits from the bar that give us 2/3 wins on dances (~50%) and something over 50% on enters (~17%), so 6/36 * 67% * 13 = 1.4 wins (out of 36);
- if we don't hit he's got ~90, so 5/6 * 10% * 13 = 1.1 win;
- sum of a = 2.5 wins

b/ when he rolls 7 (6 rolls):
- we got maybe 5%, so 5% * 6 = .3 win
- a + b = 2.8 wins

c/ when he rolls 8 pips (5 rolls):
- like case /a/ but we have 4 instead of 6 returns and there are 5 instead of 13 rolls, so 2/3 * 5/13 = ~1/4 * 2.5 wins (from a) = ~.6 wins
- a + b + c = 3.4 wins

d/ when he rolls 9 or 10 pips or 44 or 55 (8 rolls), he gives a direct shot:
- like case /a/ (2.5 wins) but we have avg 12 returns instead of 6 but there are 8 rolls instead of 13, so 2.5 wins * 2 * <2/3 = 3.1 wins
- a + b + c + d = 6.5 wins

e/ other 4 rolls:
- we got maybe 5% avg, so ~ .2 wins
- sum = 6.5 + .2 = 6.7 wins

that's over 18%

tp ats is 16% so I'd take, foolishly trusting my math

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