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Estimate white's chance... Enough to Take?

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Thursday, 19 May 2016, at 1:54 p.m.

In Response To: Estimate white's chance... Enough to Take? (Rico)

the take point is fairly easy to estimate. If white passes, it'll be 5a Crawford and white will have to win three games in a row to win the match, so her mWC after a pass is 12.5%. If she takes she immediately recubes to 8 and the game is for the match. So, the takepoint is 12.5%.

Does she have that? Not sure, so I'd certainly ship it here.

I'll estimate the GWC at somewhere between 10 and 15 percent, which isn't much help here. I'll say pass, but without much conviction.

R/P

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