Either 5pt beats either 4pt.
In the early game, those are wise words. In these variants, the deck is stacked against anchoring in several ways, and it takes all of them to push pointing on the 4pt ahead of anchoring on the 20pt. The margins, however, are slim. Only in one of the variants is it decisive.
52S-64H-21H-62U-42
Here is the original position. The opponent's blots are on the 1pt, 2pt, and 7pt.
        
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 171 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 160
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aa---EaD---dD---c-e--A-A-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 42 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/4 6/4 | eq: +0.2346 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.29% (G:16.19% B:0.64%)
44.71% (G:10.73% B:0.40%) | Conf.: ±0.0021 (+0.2324...+0.2367) - [81.5%]
Duration: 8 hours 06 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/20 22/20 | eq: +0.2333 (-0.0013) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.41% (G:13.15% B:0.41%)
44.59% (G:7.85% B:0.27%) | Conf.: ±0.0019 (+0.2313...+0.2352) - [18.5%]
Duration: 8 hours 12 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 13/7* | eq: +0.1127 (-0.1218) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.34% (G:15.54% B:0.73%)
47.66% (G:12.37% B:0.56%) | Conf.: ±0.0082 (+0.1045...+0.1209) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 00 second |
|
| |
1 62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 82808387
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 82808387
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Rollout by Taper_Mike
2016-May-16
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
52S-64H-21H-62U-42-n-tm.xgp
n[P @1 H122] "<=62*5
n[P @3 H124] "&e |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Variant #1 – 52S-64H-21H-61U-42
In the first variant, White has fewer ways to capture Blue's 7pt. His blots are on the 1pt and 7pt.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 172 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 160
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b----EaD---dD---c-e--A-A-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 42 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/4 6/4 | eq: +0.2952 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.55% (G:17.54% B:0.88%)
43.45% (G:10.59% B:0.38%) | Conf.: ±0.0022 (+0.2930...+0.2974) - [83.3%]
Duration: 8 hours 20 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/20 22/20 | eq: +0.2938 (-0.0015) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.64% (G:14.48% B:0.54%)
43.36% (G:7.67% B:0.28%) | Conf.: ±0.0020 (+0.2918...+0.2958) - [16.7%]
Duration: 8 hours 23 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 13/7* | eq: +0.1671 (-0.1281) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.50% (G:16.46% B:0.98%)
46.50% (G:11.96% B:0.51%) | Conf.: ±0.0083 (+0.1589...+0.1754) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 18 seconds |
|
| |
1 62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51381159
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51381159
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Rollout by Taper_Mike
2016-May-17
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
52S-64H-21H-61U-42-n-tm.xgp
n[P @1 H128] "<=62*5
n[P @9 H122] "&e |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Variant #2 – 52S-64H-21H-61U-42
The two rollouts above are virtual ties. When the opponent has a credible chance of anchoring on Blue's 5pt on the next roll, the balance swings slightly in favor of making the 4pt.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 173 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 160
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aa--aE-D---dD---c-e--A-A-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 42 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/4 6/4 | eq: +0.2314 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.69% (G:14.48% B:0.65%)
44.31% (G:10.89% B:0.37%) | Conf.: ±0.0029 (+0.2285...+0.2344) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 17 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/20 22/20 | eq: +0.2199 (-0.0116) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.62% (G:11.32% B:0.38%)
44.38% (G:8.16% B:0.28%) | Conf.: ±0.0028 (+0.2171...+0.2227) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 15 minutes |
|
| |
1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 15601324
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Rollout by Taper_Mike
2016-May-20
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
52S-64H-21H-51U-42-n-tm.xgp
n[P @12] "<=31
n[P @16] "&e |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Variant #3 – 52S-64H-21H-31V-42
Putting the opponent's blots are farther back creates an intermediate position.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 175 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 160
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aaa--E-D---dD---c-e--A-A-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 42 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/4 6/4 | eq: +0.3133 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.49% (G:16.16% B:0.71%)
42.51% (G:10.70% B:0.38%) | Conf.: ±0.0022 (+0.3111...+0.3155) - [99.9%]
Duration: 8 hours 54 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/20 22/20 | eq: +0.3085 (-0.0048) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.48% (G:13.37% B:0.49%)
42.52% (G:8.06% B:0.29%) | Conf.: ±0.0020 (+0.3064...+0.3105) - [0.1%]
Duration: 9 hours 07 minutes |
|
| |
1 62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96725549
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Rollout by Taper_Mike
2016-May-19
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
52S-64H-21H-31V-42-n-tm.xgp
n[P @5] "<=62
n[P @8] "&e |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Variant #4 – 52S-64H-21H-21U-42
Leaving the opponent with two checkers on his 24pt finally swings the balance decisively. This is a clear-cut exception to the rule.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 176 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 160
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b-a--E-D---dD---c-e--A-A-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 42 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/4 6/4 | eq: +0.3808 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.53% (G:18.12% B:1.01%)
41.47% (G:10.49% B:0.38%) | Conf.: ±0.0061 (+0.3747...+0.3870) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/20 22/20 | eq: +0.3408 (-0.0401) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.03% (G:14.49% B:0.60%)
41.97% (G:8.00% B:0.29%) | Conf.: ±0.0058 (+0.3350...+0.3465) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes |
|
| |
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94130989
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Rollout by Taper_Mike
2016-May-20
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
52S-64H-21H-21U-42-n-tm.xgp
n[P @40] "<=7
n[P @39] "&e |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Variant #5 – 52S-64H-21H-54@-42
When White has an advanced anchor, the pointing play plummets in value.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 170 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 160
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a---bE-D---dD---c-e--A-A-:0:0:1:24:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 24 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/20 22/20 | eq: +0.1062 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.00% (G:9.73% B:0.31%)
47.00% (G:8.72% B:0.28%) | Conf.: ±0.0129 (+0.0933...+0.1190) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 04 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/4 6/4 | eq: +0.0674 (-0.0387) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.34% (G:10.65% B:0.38%)
47.66% (G:11.44% B:0.37%) | Conf.: ±0.0130 (+0.0545...+0.0804) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 47 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 75109221
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
|
Rollout by Dmitriy Obukhov
2011-Sep-07
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.xx
52S-64H-21H-54@-do xgp
[@ P39] "<1 |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10