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OLM 20160526A The Prime Factors Consultation
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: OLM 20160526A The Prime Factors Consultation (Jason Lee)
Date: Friday, 27 May 2016, at 12:36 a.m.
This is an awkward position but not that unusual -- early game, already outpositioned (including outboarded) and a bad roll -- a least-of-evils decision. These can be tough OtB, emotionally. Can we do better with many hours to think?
Let's look at Dillies' position. Of course they own their 5-point and are split. But their builders are stacked on their birth points -- 6-point and midpoint. Can we make a play that doesn't cater to their stacks?
If we stay on the 5-point they hit with 2's and 4's there, and any other 2 or 4 hits will lose out. So duplication of 2's and 4's (elsewhere)has merit. Again, if we stay put, what other numbers could they hit with? 5's if we stay on the 24-point. Thus 2(2) gives them 'outs' with 5's. That (IMO) makes 24/14 better than 2(2) in that only 65 is added to their arsenal after 2's, 4's, and indirects {31,11}.
5/1*, 13/7 received no votes, so if we're hitting loose on the acepoint we know how to finish the roll. Eliminating other rolls that received zero votes (like the quadruple shot leaving 13/3*) has us down to two candidates.
The hit gives us tempo, but isn't tempo more important when opp has things to do with the roll? Their stacked spares don't give them a lot of tasty options so it seems to come down to hits. If we leave our 5-point to hit are we really taking away many of their chances to make that point (or many of our own chances, for that matter)? Doesn't seem like it.
5/1*, 24/18 gives them aces (11), 6's {26,36,46,56} (8), plus doublets {22,33,44} (3) with {11,16} actually hitting twice. 22 hits of which 3 are double hits.
24/14 leaves the 23 on our side plus 65 on our 14-point and {66,33} on our 23-point. {22,44,42} (four rolls of the 27) hit twice. The wild card, though, is that 6's can be played 8/2* which adds 61 and 63 to the single hit mix and 64 and 62 to the double hit mix.
22[3] hits[double hits] vs. 31[8] favors 6/1*. Do the positional considerations offset this? In one case our 5-point is slotted (and more easily covered) and in the other the 18-point is slotted. Also if they don't hit, after 24/14 we only have one checker back. But almost all of the hits after 24/14 remove the 5-point slot whereas about half that many remove the 18-point slot.
I may have given 2(2) short shift as it at least makes a point, but it seems to me that the loose hit, as impure as it is, gives us better survival chances. Tough choice still but I'm going (to BK?) with:
24/18, 5/1*
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