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Race Cube @3a4a

Posted By: Casper Van der Tak
Date: Monday, 30 May 2016, at 5:19 p.m.

In Response To: Race Cube @3a4a (Martin)

This is actually a tough problem, because Black's raw take point is high, but he has huge recube vig. I would need to do the math to figure this one out. Probably the easiest way to do it is to say that you are going to recube aggressively, so that all Black wins are going to be with the cube on 4, and the same for half of his losses. You can use the same assumptions to calculate when White starts to make a profit from doubling (with the same assumptions about the recube) vs never doubling.

While Black's outfield checkers are slightly back from White's, this does not matter much. A straight pipcount based analysis of the race is quite close here.

You should then get a feel for how far you are in the market window, and base your decision on that.

This approach is not the general one, and works only because Black will recube aggressively.

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