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What is the answer and how do we find out?

Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Wednesday, 1 June 2016, at 12:13 p.m.

XG says that white will win this game 65 percent. I would be happy to prop this taking blue at even money as I believe black doesn't even have a take here.

Now, we can't roll this out to find out what is the right answer, as we know XG won't play it right. We can play it out ourselves a thousand times, but we aren't playing it right either. So unless someone can give me some other ideas, I guess we just can't know the answer for positions like this, right?





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 66
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 212
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--bBBB-----A---AAB-AAAA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 34.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 47.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 65.55% (G:42.33% B:29.96%) 52.14% (G:26.60% B:15.63%)
Cubeless Equities -1.034 -0.930
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0.907
Double/Beaver:-2.000 (-1.093)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+1.907)
Best Cube action: No double / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 26.7%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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