          
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 148 | | 13 point match | pip: 123
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-cBCaBB-B----Ba----dbAbb-A:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:13:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 13/7 | eq: +0,467 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61,56% (G:24,62% B:2,57%)
38,44% (G:11,20% B:0,37%) | Conf.: ± 0,007 (+0,460...+0,474) - [98,0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 01 second |
|
2. | Rollout1 | Bar/15 | eq: +0,453 (-0,014) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60,73% (G:24,49% B:2,89%)
39,27% (G:14,76% B:0,53%) | Conf.: ± 0,012 (+0,441...+0,464) - [2,0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 47 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | Bar/21 8/2 | eq: +0,401 (-0,066) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57,64% (G:22,24% B:2,32%)
42,36% (G:12,82% B:0,55%) | Conf.: ± 0,022 (+0,379...+0,422) - [0,0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 20 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Thanks for the insights.
I've checked your points with the bot.
After run & miss we got a cash or at least double next turn (excluding 66 and maybe 33, which puts it on the line).
After run & weak hit inside (with 43 or 42) we have a sound double.
After slot & miss we got mostly cashes, too.
The single loose hits inside are indeed much riskier for the opp (yielding an avg. eq of -.49 per 4-ply) than outside (-.29 per 4-ply).
Below is the collection of variants that I've examined, but am still not sure on some conclusions.
Variant A
Compared to the original position, bottom player is adjusted 5/4(2) and top - 21/20.
Slot gives 2 hitting numbers, like before, but it also leaves 4s to cover the golden (the cover number was duplicated before). That's too much risk for the slot, so run wins with it. The ugly 8/2, homever, comes on top of the previous two. I don't see any other reason, than just the overall strength of opp's position (up ca. 5%) making the safety of 8/2 worth it. The probable phantom backgame scenario you mentioned is also much milder with the gap on 5 instead of 4pt I guess.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 147 | | 13 point match | pip: 121
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-cBCBaB-B----Ba----dbAbb-A:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:13:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 8/2 | eq: +0,277 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55,69% (G:19,81% B:1,91%)
44,31% (G:13,97% B:0,59%) | Conf.: ± 0,012 (+0,266...+0,289) - [98,1%]
Duration: 16 minutes 08 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/15 | eq: +0,262 (-0,016) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56,74% (G:22,31% B:2,86%)
43,26% (G:17,53% B:0,58%) | Conf.: ± 0,009 (+0,252...+0,271) - [1,9%]
Duration: 12 minutes 33 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | Bar/21 13/7 | eq: +0,237 (-0,040) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55,49% (G:19,89% B:1,99%)
44,51% (G:13,55% B:0,52%) | Conf.: ± 0,012 (+0,226...+0,249) - [0,0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 31 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Variant B
Compared to the original position, top player is adjusted 11/9.
For the running play, the outside hits are mostly gone (there is still 65), being traded into inside hits. Additionally, the double hits are gone (61 & 21), but opp got another poh roll - 52, so maybe that evens out. As expected, this play is now safe enough, so no need for a risk with the slot.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 146 | | 13 point match | pip: 123
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-cBCaBB-B----B--a--dbAbb-A:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:13:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/15 | eq: +0,556 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62,15% (G:26,37% B:3,40%)
37,85% (G:14,01% B:0,44%) | Conf.: ± 0,016 (+0,540...+0,572) - [100,0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 21 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 13/7 | eq: +0,513 (-0,043) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63,13% (G:25,79% B:2,72%)
36,87% (G:10,96% B:0,38%) | Conf.: ± 0,011 (+0,501...+0,524) - [0,0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 07 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 8/2 | eq: +0,484 (-0,072) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59,34% (G:24,06% B:2,73%)
40,66% (G:12,19% B:0,49%) | Conf.: ± 0,017 (+0,467...+0,502) - [0,0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 18 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Variant C
Compared to the original position, bottom player is adjusted 3/6.
Slotting has became a bit too desperate, given our added timing & flexibility. The 8/2 now semi-kills only 1 checker, which is enough to bring it on top.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 148 | | 13 point match | pip: 126
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-cBBaBC-B----Ba----dbAbb-A:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:13:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 8/2 | eq: +0,624 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63,05% (G:25,64% B:2,59%)
36,95% (G:10,80% B:0,40%) | Conf.: ± 0,009 (+0,615...+0,633) - [99,8%]
Duration: 15 minutes 33 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/15 | eq: +0,604 (-0,020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64,12% (G:27,06% B:3,28%)
35,88% (G:13,77% B:0,44%) | Conf.: ± 0,011 (+0,593...+0,614) - [0,2%]
Duration: 15 minutes 35 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 13/7 | eq: +0,592 (-0,032) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65,55% (G:28,01% B:2,93%)
34,45% (G:9,91% B:0,34%) | Conf.: ± 0,008 (+0,584...+0,599) - [0,0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 05 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2