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Holding Game Cube Action - Rollouts + Variants

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 1 July 2016, at 4:26 a.m.

In Response To: Holding Game Cube Action (Stick)

@ah_clem: The market losers are not only the doubles except double aces, but any roll that forces us to pay now followed by a miss. In fact, that latter scenario is such a huge market loser, we're usually too good if we pay off and are missed! That means 5 doublets + [65 64 63 62 54 53] followed by a miss (about 7 games) and then you could count our worst rolls where we have to pay off followed by a miss too. [61 51 52] Let's call that 3 games.

The gammons are pretty high since most of them are running gammons.

I also think if the opponent had his spares up higher so his board wouldn't break for some scenarios that would be a pass.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 145
Unlimited Game
pip: 61
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=----ABCBB---bB-----Cbbcbd-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.96% (G:31.66% B:0.05%) 66.86% (G:31.64% B:0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.04% (G:3.46% B:0.10%) 33.14% (G:3.44% B:0.10%)
Cubeless Equities +0.621 +1.237
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.588 (-0.364)±0.011 (+0.577..+0.600)
Double/Take:+0.953±0.016 (+0.937..+0.969)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.047)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63867623
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 58 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Variant #1 - Made 4pt
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 143
Unlimited Game
pip: 61
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=----BBBBB---bB-----Cbbcbd-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.61% (G:25.93% B:0.01%) 61.76% (G:25.65% B:0.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.39% (G:3.95% B:0.11%) 38.24% (G:3.98% B:0.11%)
Cubeless Equities +0.451 +0.901
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.418 (-0.216)±0.010 (+0.408..+0.429)
Double/Take:+0.635±0.013 (+0.622..+0.648)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.365)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63867623
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 18 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Variant #2 - Spare swung around
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 135
Unlimited Game
pip: 61
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=----ABCBBA--bB-----Bbbcbd-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.26% (G:17.71% B:0.04%) 66.18% (G:17.57% B:0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.74% (G:3.64% B:0.11%) 33.82% (G:3.53% B:0.10%)
Cubeless Equities +0.465 +0.927
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.468 (-0.225)±0.008 (+0.460..+0.476)
Double/Take:+0.693±0.013 (+0.680..+0.705)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.307)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63867623
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 54 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Variant #3 - Both (Made 4pt + spare around)





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 133
Unlimited Game
pip: 61
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=----BBBBBA--bB-----Bbbcbd-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.13% (G:13.11% B:0.01%) 61.36% (G:12.89% B:0.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.87% (G:4.03% B:0.11%) 38.64% (G:4.14% B:0.11%)
Cubeless Equities +0.312 +0.627
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.344 (-0.108)±0.007 (+0.337..+0.352)
Double/Take:+0.452±0.010 (+0.442..+0.462)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.548)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63867623
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 29 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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