I actually thought about this and had tons of clock time remaining. Somehow I never saw the hit lift play as I was fixated on closing the ace pt to prevent further misses if hit or if my opp rolled some big dubs.
I was quite sure that 6/0 was better than 6/4 6/2. I saw the 55 joker my play left but should've quantified it vs 55 after play 6/0. 55 occurs one chance in 36 so if I am 36% worse off after 55 and pointing on the ace pt then I am 1% worse off after 55. That is significant and I think I am worse that 36% off after 55 which after my lame play leaves me a big dog but after 6/0 leaves two blots and I am a clear fave. This alone should've pushed my to play 6/0 which is at least an acceptable play.
I've had problems before in the contact bearoff when having an unusual position and rolling a blotting number with several possibilities. Hopefully next time my warning radar will kick in and I can at least see all the plays. Had I seen the play I'd have cleared the 5 instantly since it is 4 fewer shots.
       
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 5
pip: 45 | | 11 point match | pip: 42
score: 8
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aDD-BB-------------a--cj-:2:1:1:24:8:5:0:11:10 |
| Blue to play 24 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 5/3 5/1* | eq: +0.7819 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 89.10% (G:1.43% B:0.03%)
10.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ±0.0004 (+0.7815...+0.7823) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 53 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/Off | eq: +0.7791 (-0.0028) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 88.96% (G:2.00% B:0.03%)
11.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ±0.0004 (+0.7787...+0.7796) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 58 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 6/4 6/2 | eq: +0.7525 (-0.0294) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 87.62% (G:1.25% B:0.02%)
12.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ±0.0004 (+0.7521...+0.7529) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 42 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 5/1* 3/1 | eq: +0.7295 (-0.0524) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 86.47% (G:3.35% B:0.03%)
13.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ±0.0004 (+0.7291...+0.7299) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 27 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2