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second roll 6-2 after 5-3P rollout

Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Saturday, 9 July 2016, at 8:21 a.m.

Someone recently questioned this play and the opening book in XG and I did a rollout for 9 days using 5 ply checker and xgr++ cube, gigantic, 2516 games, confidence 99.9% and you can see the results below. Both Stick and David Rockwell assured me in advance that slotting the 5 point was wrong for money, and they were, of course, correct.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 159 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 167 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---b-d--b-B-:0:0:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 62

1.	Rollout1	24/18 13/11	eq: -0.224
	Player: Opponent: 45.75% (G:11.23% B:0.57%) 54.25% (G:18.93% B:0.88%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.232...-0.216) - [100.0%] Duration: 24 days 04 hours 20 minutes
2.	Rollout2	13/5	eq: -0.245 (-0.020)
	Player: Opponent: 44.83% (G:12.59% B:0.55%) 55.17% (G:18.15% B:1.21%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.253...-0.236) - [0.0%] Duration: 21 days 21 hours 20 minutes
3.	Book3	24/16	eq: -0.261 (-0.037)
	Player: Opponent: 44.73% (G:10.09% B:0.45%) 55.27% (G:18.26% B:0.76%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.266...-0.257) - [0.0%]
4.	Book4	13/11 13/7	eq: -0.299 (-0.075)
	Player: Opponent: 43.91% (G:11.80% B:0.52%) 56.09% (G:19.18% B:1.52%)
5.	3-ply	24/18 8/6	eq: -0.323 (-0.099)
	Player: Opponent: 42.91% (G:9.83% B:0.44%) 57.09% (G:19.18% B:0.74%)
1 2516 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 5-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller++ Search interval: Gigantic 2 2517 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 5-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller++ Search interval: Gigantic 3 Generated by David Rockwell on 1/13/2013 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 16694288 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply 4 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00 Analyzed in XG Roller++

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10