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Rollout: Bearing off against a nearly-busted backgame

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Monday, 25 July 2016, at 5:50 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout: Bearing off against a nearly-busted backgame (David Levy)

I think this is a variation on pay-now-or-pay-later. I say variation, however, because 6/4 3/off will sometimes leave more shots later.

Hal and Kit gave three criteria for paying now:

  1. Opponent will be stronger later.
  2. You will be weaker later.
  3. If you are not hit, you have a near claim.
All three must be true in a classic pay-now position.

In this position, #1 is probably true, but usually the only improvement the opponent will make is a better positioning of builders. In most variations, he will not have added a new point to his board before the next shot materializes.

#2 is certainly true.

#3 is not true at all.

Nevertheless, the pay-now play, 6/4 3/off, creates a much less shot-prone position than either 5/off or 6/3 5/3.

I suppose the best way to get a feel for how often the pay-later play, 5/off, ends up costing you more than 6/4 3/off, it to play out the position a bunch of times. Given the closeness of Neil's rollout, a few dozen hand rollouts won't be enough to show which play is best. It should, however, demonstrate the large number of times that 5/off leads to future shots.

Mike

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