Sadly Mr Chow is leading all and sundry up the garden path into a chaotic jumble of BG theory. In the past, unkindly it was intimated that I was in the habit of analysing a position through XG then creating a scenario to justify my brilliant diagnoses. I believe this post and all its inputs and ramifications bursts that bubble. I immediately posted that making the advanced anchor would be a mistake. This did not go down well with most of the subsequent posts which of course is the norm for my brilliant viewpoints.
I am going to break my normal practice and try to enlighten myself and any one that is mildly interested in those thoughts.
I note the obvious high anchor.
I check the match status and score. Doubling windows and all that stuff is beyond me OTB I use common sense.
I check the game status , white is winning by a fair margin. I am capable of estimating game winning chances in middle game situations to a high degree. This is on account of my cube theory which enables me to sum the basic situation at a glance. I made this available to the forum some time ago.
I notice that the advance anchor means little or no contact it will be ships in the night and an easy win for white. The chance of rolling a double is 16% the second roll is 30% the third roll is 42%. A death knell for blue . White has a good timing advantage and will probably win the game.
What if I dont make the anchor ? Oh dear the roll threats are enormous I screw up my face. Im brilliant at roll odds it makes such a play very scary, but at the least blue is still in contact whatever happens. This was a very quick decision for me.
Its a no brainer blue wants to stay in the match, no high anchor for me. Theres obviously more thought processes to it than that but that's all I got at the moment. I back up my brilliance with the following
XG says no high anchor, see incomplete rollout
I let xg play 10 games with a high anchor blue lost 9 games
I let xg play 5 games with no anchor blue won 2 thats enough for me.
And of course I predicted so.
The top play is poetry in motion the trouble is I stopped thinking when I made the 5 point, Despite my brilliance I doubt that I would have recognised it. My use of the word brilliant is a gross abuse of the word. I am brilliant on the fish sim but very ordinary on most else. I appear to have a couple of BG tools in my box that others seem to ignore, roll odds and a good understanding of cube values hence game position and value. Hr Simborg posted some positions recently, I got the cube problem right at a glance but then its a 50 50 chance. I'm thinking there comes a time when coincidence is not a factor. Get your head around the cube and roll odds and be as brilliant as me
Theres a knocking at the door the men in white coats are here they only let me out when there's a good BG problem to get excited about.
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| XGID=---BBAC-AA-b-Cb--bbe--b-AA:0:0:1:54:1:3:0:5:10 | ||||
 to play 54 | ||||
is eXtremeGammon| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 13/8 | eq: -0.4407 (+0.1979) | |||
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| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 8/3 | eq: -0.4945 (+0.1441) | |||
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3. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 9/5 | eq: -0.5143 (+0.1243) | |||
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| 4. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 9/4 | eq: -0.5860 (+0.0526) | |||
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5. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 24/20 | eq: -0.6386 | |||
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| 6. | Rollout2 | Bar/20 8/4 | eq: -0.7021 (-0.0635) | |||
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| 7. | Rollout3 | Bar/20 13/9 | eq: -0.7074 (-0.0687) | |||
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| 8. | Rollout2 | Bar/21 6/1 | eq: -0.7106 (-0.0720) | |||
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| 1 2592 Games rolled. Rolled for both No double and Double Dice Seed: 48598895 Cubeless First 8 moves: 4-ply Remaining moves: 4-ply Search interval: Huge 2 2162 Games rolled. Rolled for both No double and Double Dice Seed: 48598895 Cubeless First 8 moves: 4-ply Remaining moves: 4-ply Search interval: Huge 3 2161 Games rolled. Rolled for both No double and Double Dice Seed: 48598895 Cubeless First 8 moves: 4-ply Remaining moves: 4-ply Search interval: Huge | ||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2