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BGonline.org Forums
Another score-based non-contact cube, from r.g.b.
Posted By: Sean Garber In Response To: Another score-based non-contact cube, from r.g.b. (Timothy Chow)
Date: Friday, 5 August 2016, at 9:09 p.m.
Let us say that blue bears off all checkers in 2 rolls 2% of the time. Blue bears off all checkers in 3 rolls 42% of the time. Blue bears off all checkers in 4 rolls 52% of the time. Blue bears off all checkers in 5 rolls 3% of the time.
Blue wins if blue is off in 2. White will win 8/1296 if blue is off in 3. Let us round this off to 0% total wins for white.
If white is off in 4: If white rolls at least one 66 in those 3 rolls (8%) white seems to be about a 2:1 favorite. If white rolls a 55 without a 66 in those 3 rolls, white seems to be about a 5:2 dog. If white can't roll a 55 or better in those 3 rolls, white is in deep trouble. We will give white 6% wins if white rolls a 66, 2% wins if white rolls a 55, and another 1% for the others giving white 9% in this category. (.09) X (.52) = 5% total wins for white in this category.
If blue takes 5 rolls, white needs 35 pips in 4 rolls. With our rounding off procedure, give white 1% more total wins.
6% or so total wins for white. Double/Drop
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