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OTB and RO

Posted By: David Levy
Date: Tuesday, 9 August 2016, at 3:18 p.m.

In Response To: Bearing off in the Silicon Valley Open (David Levy)

Cheryl Andersen, who had a great run in the open, doubled as blue. My take point is 25% and I knew that a straight four-roll position was a bare take.





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 8
9 point match
pip: 8
score: 7

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-H----------------------h-:0:0:1:00:7:6:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 74.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 25.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.491 +1.612
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.761 (-0.195)±0.000 (+0.760..+0.761)
Double/Take:+0.956±0.000 (+0.956..+0.956)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.044)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 0.5 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

My position is a pretty pure four roll position. What about Cheryl's? On the one hand, she has six checkers left and will sometimes get off in three, even without rolling doubles. On the other hand, she misses on things like three consecutive aces. I couldn't find a way over the board to count all the permutations. But I did see that double aces and deuces did not carry there full weight and that tipped me in favor of taking. If anyone has any suggestions for better OTB handling, I'd be interested to hear. In any case, I was correct:





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 12
9 point match
pip: 18
score: 7

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ADA----------------a-bd-:0:0:1:00:7:6:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 73.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 26.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.475 +1.569
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.714 (-0.179)±0.001 (+0.713..+0.715)
Double/Take:+0.893±0.000 (+0.893..+0.893)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.107)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1.3 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Cheryl rolled a 4-2, a good roll for me. After my automatic redouble, I'm up to 29.5%.





White is Player 1

score: 7
pip: 12
9 point match
pip: 12
score: 6

Blue is Player 2
XGID=---D-----------------a-bd-:1:-1:-1:00:7:6:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 29.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 29.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 70.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 70.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities -0.411 -0.130
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:-0.191 (-0.061)±0.000 (-0.191..-0.191)
Redouble/Take:-0.130±0.000 (-0.130..-0.130)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+1.130)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 0.2 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I rolled a 5-2 and Cheryl won the match with double fives. Sometimes she gets off in two.

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