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BGonline.org Forums
Rollout ATS and for money
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Double from the bar? (Timothy Chow)
Date: Wednesday, 10 August 2016, at 11:53 p.m.
This might look like a "normal match score" but not when the cube has such a high chance of getting to 4 in a hurry. I did not double here. Note that it would be a beaver for money if beavers were allowed.
White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 667 point match pip: 111
score: 1
Blue is Player 1XGID=--BCBBBA----a--b--Bb-abdcA:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:7:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 52.87% (G:18.67% B:0.54%) 53.27% (G:18.53% B:0.50%) Opponent Winning Chances: 47.13% (G:9.81% B:0.02%) 46.73% (G:10.19% B:0.04%) Cubeless Equities +0.171 +0.392 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.004 (-0.142) ±0.008 (-0.004..+0.012) Double/Take: +0.146 ±0.017 (+0.129..+0.163) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.854) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 9 minutes 46 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
For money:
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 66Unlimited Game pip: 111
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=--BCBBBA----a--b--Bb-abdcA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 52.92% (G:18.72% B:0.55%) 53.18% (G:18.68% B:0.54%) Opponent Winning Chances: 47.08% (G:9.82% B:0.03%) 46.82% (G:9.91% B:0.04%) Cubeless Equities +0.152 +0.313 Cubeful Equities No double: -0.021 ±0.008 (-0.029..-0.013) Double/Take: -0.138 (-0.117) ±0.015 (-0.154..-0.123) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+1.021) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 9.3% Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 8 minutes 52 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release
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