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Rollout ATS and for money

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 10 August 2016, at 11:53 p.m.

In Response To: Double from the bar? (Timothy Chow)

This might look like a "normal match score" but not when the cube has such a high chance of getting to 4 in a hurry. I did not double here. Note that it would be a beaver for money if beavers were allowed.







White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 66
7 point match
pip: 111
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BCBBBA----a--b--Bb-abdcA:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 52.87% (G:18.67% B:0.54%) 53.27% (G:18.53% B:0.50%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 47.13% (G:9.81% B:0.02%) 46.73% (G:10.19% B:0.04%)
Cubeless Equities +0.171 +0.392
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.004 (-0.142)±0.008 (-0.004..+0.012)
Double/Take:+0.146±0.017 (+0.129..+0.163)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.854)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 9 minutes 46 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2


For money:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 66
Unlimited Game
pip: 111
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BCBBBA----a--b--Bb-abdcA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 52.92% (G:18.72% B:0.55%) 53.18% (G:18.68% B:0.54%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 47.08% (G:9.82% B:0.03%) 46.82% (G:9.91% B:0.04%)
Cubeless Equities +0.152 +0.313
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0.021±0.008 (-0.029..-0.013)
Double/Take:-0.138 (-0.117)±0.015 (-0.154..-0.123)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+1.021)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 9.3%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 52 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

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