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Your crude estimator is fine tuned

Posted By: Casper Van der Tak
Date: Friday, 12 August 2016, at 10:58 a.m.

In Response To: Your crude estimator is fine tuned (rambiz)

No - the point is that it always sums to zero because of how luck is estimated (comparing winning chances after the roll with the average of the winning chances after all 36 dice combinations). In a last roll situation, you either win or lose after the role, so your winning chances estimation is exact, and so is your luck estimator. In your notation, p' = p.

Your counterexample works because it assumes that luck is calculated in a way inconsistent with how luck is estimated in these programs.

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