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So if something has a 40% chance of happening, how often does it happen? Ever?

Posted By: Casper Van der Tak
Date: Sunday, 14 August 2016, at 9:17 a.m.

In Response To: So if something has a 40% chance of happening, how often does it happen? Ever? (David Rennie)

This is a profound question, as probabilities of single trial events are difficult to understand philosophically. Of course coming from a betting background makes it simpler (look at a series of events with 40% probability, and you know the odds you need to bet on each of these).

In the case of a Trump presidency, this is going to happen never, once, or twice.

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