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So if something has a 40% chance of happening, how often does it happen? Ever?

Posted By: Bill Finneran
Date: Sunday, 14 August 2016, at 1:50 p.m.

In Response To: So if something has a 40% chance of happening, how often does it happen? Ever? (David Rennie)

The standard weather forecast on the east coast middle atlantic region is high in the upper 80s to low 90s with a 30-40% chance of rain.....

Maybe the journalist used to be a weather guesser!!!

What is really sad is many political strategists/pollsters have no clue how to read Nate Silver's data or other conclusive evidence....two examples one from each party...... 1) in 2012 Romney campaign apparently truly believed they would win until the real results came in..... 2) On the democratic side...they still believe they actually won in FL in 2000.

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