I saw this position in Atlanta in the Intermediate Final -- my recollection may not be exact, but this is close enough for illustrative purposes.
Obviously, if white loses he loses the match. To ensure a white win, with blue having 8 off, is it better to play for a second checker (and almost assure the win) or is it better to hit, guarding against the joker or a bad sequence following an escaping 6, and hopefully close out to win a race with white having one in the air?
If white doesn't hit, on blue's next roll, any non-doublet 1, 2, or 3 leaves a shot (or shots) at a second checker. If white doesn't hit, a blue 6 escapes but white has good return coverage. The 6-6 joker ends the match. So, blue is a bit more than 2-1 to roll a non-doublet 1, 2, or 3 rather than a 6 and any 6 (other than 6-6) gives white 20 or more returns (with my 6/4, 17/13 play).
My reaction in watching the match was to play 6/4, 17/13 and take advantage of a seemingly very good chance to pick up a second checker. If I don't get the second checker and blue doesn't escape, blue's racing chances are perhaps marginally better if he has improved position of the six homeboard checkers.
OTB white hit and won the game; and later won the match. Snowie says definitely hit.
Wins go up from about 60% to 85% with the second checker. Worth the risk to better ensure the win? How do others feel?
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| Board image courtesy of GO-Figure | |