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Does everybody here know this?

Posted By: Sean Garber
Date: Saturday, 20 August 2016, at 7:30 a.m.

In Response To: Does everybody here know this? (Jack Mack)

So, Murat is wanting to make this bet:

"I am willing to make a double-edged bet, on the one hand a 50-50 bet for $5,000 that I will beat the bot, and on the other hand bet $5,000 based on the odds to be derived from the bot's rating of my play, after the fact. For example, based on my ELO or PR, if I had 20% chances of beating the bot, my $5,000 bet would have to be countered with $20,000 and the proceeds disbursed accordingly."

From Murat's side, the "bet $5,000 based on the odds to be derived from the bot's rating of my play, after the fact." part of the bet can be scammed pretty easily. Lets say a 17 point match. In game 1 or 2, Murat finds a position where he is a 27% dog or so. Murat doubles XG to 2. XG immediately redoubles to 4, Murat redoubles to 8, XG redoubles to 16. Lets say Murat take his 25% to 30% and wins that game. Up 16-0 or 16-1 Crawford, Murat then plays his checkers as badly as possible on Crawford game and perhaps another game or 2 after that. Murat then plays normally and wins the match. XG says Murat's PR is about 100 or so that match and Murat wins with ridiculous odds on the odds bet.

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