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Prime vs prime(?) - analysis

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Thursday, 25 August 2016, at 8:29 p.m.

In Response To: Prime vs prime(?) (Karol Szczerek)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 156 Unlimited Game pip: 140 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-abBC-CB--aa---ccbbAA--A:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 63

1.	Rollout1	Bar/16	eq: -0,315
	Player: Opponent: 41,38% (G:14,13% B:0,48%) 58,62% (G:17,96% B:1,00%) Conf.: ± 0,014 (-0,329...-0,301) - [100,0%] Duration: 11 minutes 48 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/22 21/15	eq: -0,449 (-0,134)
	Player: Opponent: 38,22% (G:11,33% B:0,44%) 61,78% (G:15,53% B:0,69%) Conf.: ± 0,014 (-0,463...-0,435) - [0,0%] Duration: 12 minutes 34 seconds
3.	Rollout1	Bar/22 8/2	eq: -0,577 (-0,262)
	Player: Opponent: 34,81% (G:12,85% B:0,40%) 65,19% (G:18,77% B:0,83%) Conf.: ± 0,015 (-0,592...-0,562) - [0,0%] Duration: 12 minutes 06 seconds
4.	Rollout1	Bar/22 9/3*	eq: -0,588 (-0,273)
	Player: Opponent: 34,14% (G:13,07% B:0,38%) 65,86% (G:19,84% B:0,88%) Conf.: ± 0,015 (-0,603...-0,574) - [0,0%] Duration: 13 minutes 51 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

We are behind in this prime battle, having lost the outfield and made the ace point. Our best chance is to scoop the chance to go forward most efficiently, with our race lead and still better home as back-up in case of hit exchange. The 3-blot play like this is usually way too dangerous, but the duplication of 4s & 3s everywhere changes this.

Opp double-hits or hits + makes 5-prime with 19 rolls for the eq (from ourpoint of view) of -.35 to -.75 for most of them, plus 3 killers for -.93 to -1.16 (33, 66, 44).

We claim the lead after his 10 rolls (mainly weak loose hits & misses) for the eq of +.11 to +.25.

The 2nd best play of keeping the anchor, stabilizes our position, but it's just weak. The killed checkers, the anchor blocked 5-away, race lead that doesn't help, no outfield control.

Opp hits or makes the 5-prime with 25 rolls for the avg eq (again, our point of view) of -.31 to -.71 for most of them, plus 1 killer (33) for -.91.

We claim the lead after only 3 rolls (55 & 51) for the avg eq of +.03 to +.14.

It's just too passive here.

Variant A - opp's prime spares moved to the front

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 152 Unlimited Game pip: 140 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-abBC-CB--aa---bbccAA--A:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 63

1.	Rollout1	Bar/22 21/15	eq: -0,407
	Player: Opponent: 39,39% (G:11,83% B:0,47%) 60,61% (G:15,69% B:0,70%) Conf.: ± 0,015 (-0,422...-0,393) - [100,0%] Duration: 12 minutes 40 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/16	eq: -0,479 (-0,072)
	Player: Opponent: 37,43% (G:13,82% B:0,66%) 62,57% (G:21,61% B:1,28%) Conf.: ± 0,014 (-0,493...-0,465) - [0,0%] Duration: 11 minutes 11 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

The 3-blots play becomes too dangerous here. Comparison with the original position:

position	double hit or 5-prime	we claim the lead
original	19 rolls	10 rolls
variant A	25 rolls	6 rolls

Messages In This Thread

• Prime vs prime(?)
  Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 23 August 2016, at 5:51 p.m.
  • Prime vs prime(?)
    Neil Robins -- Tuesday, 23 August 2016, at 7:34 p.m.
    • Prime vs prime(?)
      Keene -- Tuesday, 23 August 2016, at 8:28 p.m.
      • Prime vs prime(?)
        Neil Robins -- Tuesday, 23 August 2016, at 8:45 p.m.
        • Prime vs prime(?)
          Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 23 August 2016, at 8:57 p.m.
        • Prime vs prime(?)
          Keene -- Tuesday, 23 August 2016, at 9:06 p.m.
    • Prime vs prime(?)
      neilkaz -- Wednesday, 24 August 2016, at 12:55 a.m.
  • Prime vs prime(?)
    hominid -- Tuesday, 23 August 2016, at 10:25 p.m.
  • Prime vs prime(?)
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 24 August 2016, at 3:59 p.m.
  • Prime vs prime(?) - analysis
    Karol Szczerek -- Thursday, 25 August 2016, at 8:29 p.m.
    • Prime vs prime(?) - analysis
      Casper Van der Tak -- Thursday, 25 August 2016, at 9:41 p.m.