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I am offering a Murat type bet

Posted By: Sean Garber
Date: Friday, 26 August 2016, at 10:51 p.m.

In Response To: Does everybody here know this? (Sean Garber)

Instead of a $5000 base value on the bets, I am offering a $10 base value on the bets. I will play 10 17 point matches vs XG. Each match will have a $10 straight up bet on who wins the match and a $10 odds based bet. The key number for the odds based bet will be [(my PR as calculated for that particular match by XG)-(XG's PR for that particular match as calculated by XG)]. We will use XG's Elo calculator to calculate the odds. A 3PR difference= a 100 point Elo difference with greater PR differences given proportionally greater Elo differences. If XG says that I was 5% to win the match and I win, I will be paid at 19:1 odds for that match.

XG's backer's loses will be capped at $100 net after all 10 matches are played. If I am net positive after all 10 matches, 100% of my winnings will be donated to a backgammon type cause or two. I will not make any money out of this.

That is all for the rules. A couple more comments. This is a sucker bet. Someone still might want to back XG here because all of XG's backer's loses will go to a good cause, it should expose similar bet offers for what those offers are, and it should be fun.

I will be in Charlotte for the ABT event next weekend. That might be the perfect spot for this bet. My thoughts (this is not a commitment yet, open for suggestions) for the two backgammon 'charities':

1.The Cup in Charlotte. The money goes to pay the expenses of live streaming matches.

2.The World Collegiate BG Championships.

I like the idea of 17 point matches. The other rules are somewhat negotiable. For example, if someone wanted to change the base value of the bet to $5, I would be open. Also, this is not a come one, come all proposition. I think I can only take one bet. I would prefer to be at a tournament at the same time as the XG backer.

Just to make it clear where I stand on this--After 20 or 25 matches, average PR is an outstanding measurement of how well a player is playing when that player is trying to play real backgammon. PR as measured by XG is not perfect. PR can be brutally misused in this type of bet.

Any takers?

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