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Routine Double 1s

Posted By: Kevin Finch
Date: Sunday, 11 September 2016, at 4:50 p.m.

In Response To: Routine Double 1s (Kevin Finch)

This one is a lesson in the importance of rollouts in complicated positions. First, the surprising pre-rollout results:





White is Ed O'Laughlin

score: 9
pip: 51
11 point match
pip: 153
score: 1

Blue is Barry Silliman
XGID=aaB-BBB--A-A-A-----A-AAaA-:0:0:1:11:1:9:0:11:10
Blue to play 11

1.XG Roller++22/21 19/18 11/9eq: +0.726
Player:
Opponent:		72.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
27.70% (G:6.22% B:2.78%)
2.XG Roller++19/18 9/6eq: +0.718 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		72.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
27.91% (G:6.15% B:2.76%)
3.XG Roller++9/5eq: +0.713 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		72.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
27.98% (G:6.22% B:2.91%)
4.XG Roller++22/21 9/6eq: +0.712 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:		71.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
28.01% (G:6.10% B:2.72%)
5.XG Roller++11/10 9/6eq: +0.708 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:		71.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
28.13% (G:6.14% B:2.85%)
6.XG Roller++21/20 9/6eq: +0.702 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:		71.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
28.32% (G:6.32% B:2.93%)
7.XG Roller++22/21 19/17 9/8eq: +0.698 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:		71.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
28.46% (G:6.50% B:2.98%)
8.XG Roller++13/12 9/6eq: +0.695 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:		71.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
28.47% (G:6.53% B:3.02%)
9.XG Roller++11/8 9/8eq: +0.682 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:		71.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
28.76% (G:6.66% B:3.14%)
10.XG Roller++24/23* 23/22 2/1*(2) eq: +0.681 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:		71.07% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
28.93% (G:5.28% B:2.05%)
11.XG Roller++24/23* 19/18 9/7eq: +0.649 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:		70.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
29.51% (G:5.22% B:2.25%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

and the somewhat less surprising rollout below. The clear takeaway is that at this stage it is all about closing out the board. Note the single hit is a blunder.





White is Player 2

score: 9
pip: 51
11 point match
pip: 153
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aaB-BBB--A-A-A-----A-AAaA-:0:0:1:11:1:9:0:11:10
Blue to play 11

1.Rollout124/23* 23/22 2/1*(2) eq: +0.861
Player:
Opponent:		75.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.56% (G:6.90% B:3.46%)		Conf.: ± 0.035 (+0.827...+0.896) - [74.2%]
Duration: 3 minutes 50 seconds
2.Rollout119/18 9/6eq: +0.843 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:		75.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.88% (G:7.01% B:3.73%)		Conf.: ± 0.030 (+0.813...+0.873) - [19.3%]
Duration: 6 minutes 37 seconds
3.Rollout119/17 11/9eq: +0.826 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:		74.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.31% (G:6.89% B:3.49%)		Conf.: ± 0.028 (+0.798...+0.854) - [2.9%]
Duration: 6 minutes 07 seconds
4.Rollout122/21 19/17 11/10eq: +0.822 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:		74.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.36% (G:6.53% B:3.34%)		Conf.: ± 0.028 (+0.794...+0.851) - [1.7%]
Duration: 5 minutes 47 seconds
5.Rollout122/21 19/18 11/9eq: +0.822 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:		74.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.46% (G:6.75% B:3.48%)		Conf.: ± 0.028 (+0.794...+0.850) - [1.4%]
Duration: 4 minutes 44 seconds
6.Rollout122/21 9/6eq: +0.808 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:		74.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.76% (G:7.50% B:3.62%)		Conf.: ± 0.030 (+0.778...+0.838) - [0.3%]
Duration: 5 minutes 22 seconds
7.Rollout121/20 9/6eq: +0.802 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:		74.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.87% (G:7.35% B:3.97%)		Conf.: ± 0.032 (+0.771...+0.834) - [0.1%]
Duration: 4 minutes 41 seconds
8.Rollout122/21 13/11 9/8eq: +0.796 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:		74.03% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.97% (G:6.98% B:3.73%)		Conf.: ± 0.028 (+0.767...+0.824) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 01 second
9.Rollout111/10 9/6eq: +0.795 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:		73.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
26.09% (G:7.18% B:3.89%)		Conf.: ± 0.032 (+0.763...+0.827) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 48 seconds
10.Rollout122/21 19/17 9/8eq: +0.795 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:		73.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
26.08% (G:7.40% B:3.60%)		Conf.: ± 0.029 (+0.765...+0.824) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 08 seconds
11.Rollout19/5eq: +0.792 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:		73.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
26.08% (G:7.15% B:3.64%)		Conf.: ± 0.030 (+0.762...+0.823) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 11 seconds
12.Rollout113/12 9/6eq: +0.792 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:		73.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
26.11% (G:7.72% B:3.93%)		Conf.: ± 0.032 (+0.760...+0.824) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 24 seconds
13.Rollout122/21 19/18 11/10 9/8eq: +0.791 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:		73.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
26.14% (G:6.89% B:3.68%)		Conf.: ± 0.029 (+0.762...+0.821) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 41 seconds
14.Rollout122/21 13/12 11/9eq: +0.790 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:		73.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
26.22% (G:7.10% B:3.46%)		Conf.: ± 0.031 (+0.758...+0.821) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 24 seconds
15.Rollout124/23* 19/18 9/7eq: +0.780 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:		73.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
26.38% (G:7.28% B:3.50%)		Conf.: ± 0.037 (+0.743...+0.817) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 04 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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