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41S-52D-61P-61P-42 – No Jacoby, No Beavers – 3-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Thursday, 29 September 2016, at 5:35 a.m.

In Response To: XGR++ (Timothy Chow)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 153
Unlimited Game
pip: 155
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----EBBA--cC---d-db--AA-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 42

1.Rollout123/21 13/9eq: -0.0606
Player:
Opponent:
49.41% (G:13.52% B:0.77%)
50.59% (G:17.29% B:0.74%)
Conf.: ±0.0080 (-0.0686...-0.0526) - [100.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 01 second
2.Rollout124/22 13/9eq: -0.1083 (-0.0477)
Player:
Opponent:
48.40% (G:12.93% B:0.70%)
51.60% (G:18.00% B:0.65%)
Conf.: ±0.0077 (-0.1160...-0.1006) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 51 seconds
3.Rollout18/4 6/4eq: -0.1332 (-0.0726)
Player:
Opponent:
47.64% (G:16.00% B:0.88%)
52.36% (G:20.45% B:1.37%)
Conf.: ±0.0081 (-0.1413...-0.1252) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 45 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2802666
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2016-Sep-28
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
41S-52D-61P-61P-42-n-tm.xgp
n[Z z48 P73] "<=5
n[Z z42 P68] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

41S-52D-61P-61P-42 – Unlimited Game
Bot Seed Equity Nacbracs Link
GnuBg 1.04 2-ply Trunc 785268875 –58.980 n[Z z46 P81] '/0.360t Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR 2802666 –60.0 n[Z z48 P73] "<=5 Taper_Mike (above)
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval [XGR++ seed] –69.0 n[Z z42 P68] "&e Timothy Chow

The most direct way to reach this position takes only four moves, but has a small misplay on the second roll. In the sequence below, White played 52D = down = 13/11, 13/8. It would have been better to play 52S = split = 24/22, 13/8. The error cost White 22 millipoints of equity.

Turn Blue White
1 41S = split = 24/23, 13/9 52D = down = 13/11, 13/8
2 61P = point = 13/7, 8/7 61P = 11/5, 6/5
3 42 = ?

Mike

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