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The Backgammon Solution

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Sunday, 16 October 2016, at 7:15 p.m.

In Response To: The Backgammon Solution (Rick Janowski)

Without the starting point of first understanding conceptually what a prior distribution means and how to update after some information is given the explanation I gave would indeed be difficult to follow. Unfortunately I don't think those ideas can be quickly explained without a good theoretical math base already there.

Casper's comment does give a good illustration though of when the 50% assumption clearly falls apart and is related to what I wrote.

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