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This Position is Money Pass but Take at -3-3

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Saturday, 17 December 2016, at 7:33 p.m.

One very basic rule of match play that we are all taught is that you should pass an initial double earlier at -3-3 than for money. This is usually valid advice, but exceptions can occur if the backgammon % is sky high. Backgammons count more than gammons for money, but after the cube has been turned at -3-3, backgammons count exactly the same as for money.

The position below has been rolled out both for money and also at -3-3. This is obviously a variation of the position Neil posted very recently on this site.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 218
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 167
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-eBBa-B-B--AbBa--b-d-A-AB-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.84% (G:37.66% B:7.79%) 63.38% (G:38.92% B:9.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.16% (G:7.25% B:0.37%) 36.62% (G:6.94% B:0.37%)
Cubeless Equities +0.635 +1.349
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.805 (-0.195)±0.010 (+0.796..+0.815)
Double/Take:+1.033 (+0.033)±0.018 (+1.015..+1.051)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 59 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 218
3 point match
pip: 167
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-eBBa-B-B--AbBa--b-d-A-AB-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:3:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.94% (G:39.29% B:12.16%) 62.53% (G:39.36% B:23.38%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.06% (G:6.80% B:0.68%) 37.47% (G:6.85% B:0.91%)
Cubeless Equities +1.040 +1.446
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.900 (-0.066)±0.016 (+0.884..+0.916)
Double/Take:+0.967±0.024 (+0.943..+0.990)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.033)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
4411 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:99.7%
Duration: 3 hours 17 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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