Rollout(s) and OTB for (A), (B), and (C)

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Rollout(s) and OTB for (A), (B), and (C)

Posted By: Ian Terry
Date: Monday, 26 December 2016, at 10:48 p.m.

In Response To: 43 to play (A) as shown, (B) @ GS (Ian Terry)

(A) "As Shown": Hitting twice barely edges out making the 5-point.

White is Professional

score: 1
pip: 155

5 point match

pip: 138
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-Ba---E-CAa-dBa--c-e---AA-:0:0:1:43:0:1:0:5:10
Blue to play 43

1. Rollout¹ 13/10* 6/2* eq: +0.496
Player:
Opponent: 58.14% (G:33.50% B:1.14%)
41.86% (G:11.64% B:1.38%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (+0.489...+0.503) - [92.7%]
Duration: 3 minutes 11 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 9/5 8/5 eq: +0.489 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent: 57.89% (G:27.58% B:0.53%)
42.11% (G:9.31% B:0.81%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (+0.481...+0.496) - [7.3%]
Duration: 3 minutes 36 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 24/20 23/20 eq: +0.431 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent: 58.41% (G:20.20% B:0.31%)
41.59% (G:6.35% B:0.46%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (+0.424...+0.438) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 30 seconds
4. 3-ply 13/9 13/10* eq: +0.405 (-0.091)
Player:
Opponent: 56.82% (G:24.25% B:0.89%)
43.18% (G:9.61% B:0.43%)
5. 1-ply 24/21 6/2* eq: +0.175 (-0.321)
Player:
Opponent: 52.05% (G:22.06% B:0.57%)
47.95% (G:11.52% B:0.78%)

¹ 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

(B) GS: Trivial play. Mainly ran it to see if hitting twice edged out the more passive 13/9 13/10*, despite six blotting (!), for the 3rd best play. It did.

White is Professional

score: 0
pip: 155

2 point match
Crawford

pip: 138
score: 1

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-Ba---E-CAa-dBa--c-e---AA-:0:0:1:43:1:0:1:2:10
Blue to play 43

1. Rollout¹ 24/20 23/20 eq: +0.031
Player:
Opponent: 58.32% (G:24.54% B:0.67%)
41.68% (G:6.77% B:0.64%) Conf.: ą 0.008 (+0.023...+0.039) - [100.0%]
Duration: 40.5 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 9/5 8/5 eq: -0.059 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent: 57.92% (G:33.05% B:1.06%)
42.08% (G:10.85% B:1.41%) Conf.: ą 0.009 (-0.068...-0.049) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40.0 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 13/10* 6/2* eq: -0.073 (-0.104)
Player:
Opponent: 58.60% (G:38.41% B:0.93%)
41.40% (G:12.23% B:1.46%) Conf.: ą 0.009 (-0.082...-0.063) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44.0 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/10* eq: -0.093 (-0.124)
Player:
Opponent: 56.71% (G:33.41% B:2.67%)
43.29% (G:11.38% B:0.94%) Conf.: ą 0.010 (-0.103...-0.084) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44.3 seconds
5. 2-ply 24/21 6/2* eq: -0.155 (-0.186)
Player:
Opponent: 52.99% (G:22.61% B:0.68%)
47.01% (G:10.72% B:0.62%)

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

(C) DMP: Double hit and 20-point are essentially equal. Making the 5-point is definitively worse than both of those.

White is Professional

score: 0
pip: 155

1 point match

pip: 138
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-Ba---E-CAa-dBa--c-e---AA-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 43

1. Rollout¹ 13/10* 6/2* eq: +0.158
Player:
Opponent: 57.91% (G:37.77% B:1.22%)
42.09% (G:12.44% B:1.80%) Conf.: ą 0.002 (+0.156...+0.161) - [93.5%]
Duration: 5 minutes 51 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 24/20 23/20 eq: +0.156 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent: 57.79% (G:24.47% B:0.64%)
42.21% (G:7.24% B:0.55%) Conf.: ą 0.002 (+0.153...+0.158) - [6.5%]
Duration: 5 minutes 22 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 9/5 8/5 eq: +0.145 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent: 57.26% (G:31.96% B:1.08%)
42.74% (G:9.49% B:1.25%) Conf.: ą 0.002 (+0.143...+0.148) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 06 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/10* eq: +0.122 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent: 56.11% (G:31.54% B:2.49%)
43.89% (G:10.03% B:0.97%) Conf.: ą 0.003 (+0.120...+0.125) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 57 seconds
5. 1-ply 24/21 6/2* eq: +0.041 (-0.117)
Player:
Opponent: 52.07% (G:22.06% B:0.57%)
47.93% (G:11.52% B:0.78%)

¹ 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

OTB: Made the 5-point at 5a-4a without giving it much thought on Speedgammon settings.

Messages In This Thread

43 to play (A) as shown, (B) @ GS
Ian Terry -- Monday, 26 December 2016, at 7:42 a.m.
- 43 to play (A) as shown, (B) @ GS
  Stick -- Monday, 26 December 2016, at 7:52 a.m.
  - 43 to play (A) as shown, (B) @ GS
    Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 26 December 2016, at 10:45 a.m.
- 43 to play (A) as shown, (B) @ GS, (C) @ DMP
  Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 26 December 2016, at 8:56 a.m.
  - 43 to play (A) as shown, (B) @ GS, (C) @ DMP
    Karol Szczerek -- Monday, 26 December 2016, at 9:40 a.m.
    - 43 to play (A) as shown, (B) @ GS, (C) @ DMP
      Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 26 December 2016, at 10:47 a.m.
      - 43 to play (A) as shown, (B) @ GS, (C) @ DMP
        Stick -- Monday, 26 December 2016, at 11:26 a.m.
        
        43 to play (A) as shown, (B) @ GS, (C) @ DMP
        Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 26 December 2016, at 12:54 p.m.
        
        43 to play (A) as shown, (B) @ GS, (C) @ DMP
        Karol Szczerek -- Monday, 26 December 2016, at 6:31 p.m.
- Rollout(s) and OTB for (A), (B), and (C)
  Ian Terry -- Monday, 26 December 2016, at 10:48 p.m.
  - Rollout(s) and OTB for (A), (B), and (C)
    Stick -- Monday, 26 December 2016, at 11:21 p.m.
- 5a 4a - DMP Rollouts
  Stick -- Tuesday, 27 December 2016, at 1:31 a.m.

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