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Rollout

Posted By: Ian Dunstan
Date: Wednesday, 11 January 2017, at 10:08 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action? (Ian Dunstan)





White is Player 2

score: 8
pip: 70
25 point match
pip: 55
score: 13

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-DFBA-------A--b-A-bbcdb--:0:0:1:00:13:8:0:25:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 67.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.13% (G:0.08% B:0.00%) 32.10% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.357 +0.748
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.551±0.005 (+0.546..+0.556)
Double/Take:+0.508 (-0.044)±0.006 (+0.501..+0.514)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.449)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 8.1%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 41258612
First 6 moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 20.3 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Some very good replies, thank you all. After reading some I quickly realised my epc method was actually pretty good. A lapse in concentration (10 pips!), made me happy to double OTB when the reality is, No Double.

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