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How many in the world?

Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Monday, 16 January 2017, at 4:23 a.m.

I posted the position below on facebook and, as I expected, got many wrong answers, and of course, a few experts got the play right.

Then I posted my response, and I am interested to see what people here think here about my estimates.

Is there anyone in the world that would get all third roll moves right after all reasonable plays at all 4 scores? I think that is a no-brainer. I don't think there is anyone who could pass that test.

But how many in the world would get all the second roll moves right at all 4 scores after all reasonable opening moves? I guessed less than 10, but I think it might be closer to 5. And by "right" I would say, since we can't be 100 percent sure of XG even after the rollouts, any play within .005 would be acceptable as correct for these purposes.

So are there 5 people? And who might they be? Nack? Weaver? Mochy? Rockwell? Stick? Xavier? Michy? MCG? Carter? Neil? Willi Preskar (he is a Giant, in case you don't know him--went from 367 to 31 in just one voting cycle, so he must be amazing!





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 158
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 159
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-B--DaB---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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