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BGonline.org Forums
From my "5pt vs. 3pt" folder...
Posted By: sebalotek In Response To: From my "5pt vs. 3pt" folder... (Timothy Chow)
Date: Monday, 16 January 2017, at 10:24 a.m.
Thanks for the additional guidance Timothy, Casper and Marty.
SL>> can anyone approximate how often making the 3 is better than making the 5 (given the option of both)?
TC>> I can't, and even if I could, I don't think that this would be particularly useful information. What is useful is understanding what factors tend to tip the decision one way or the other.
In backgammon, where there are usually multiple factors at work, sometimes cancelling eachother out and occasionally counter-intuitive I find it difficult to know if I am giving the correct amount of weight to each factor. Or indeed if I am considering all of them. Or even the right ones at all.
I agree that it is very useful to understand what factors tend to tip the decision one way or the other. But, for me (and possibly others) even if I am understanding the factors, over the board, the correct move is still difficult to be 100% certain of with every occurrence of this choice. Some choices can be very close.
So, I do feel that there is an additional benefit to knowing how often making the 3 is better than making the 5 point.
If for example we have a close decision and knew it was correct to make the 3 point rather than the 5 approximately 25% of the time, then it seems to me that I would be more likely to give some extra amount of consideration and weight to making the 3.
Whereas if for example we knew it was rarely correct to make the 3 point rather than the 5 (say approximately 0.1% of the time), then it seems to me that I would be less likely to choose that move of the two.
Perhaps it could be used as a kind of weighted tie-breaker. That is why I thought it might be useful to have a reasonable guesstimate for the probability. I would also find this figure 'interesting' in itself.
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